Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Fair Value 2026

HUBG · Integrated Freight & Logistics ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) trades at $39.98, versus a $33.42 median fair value across its 12 active models — 16.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $34.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
HUBG
Price
$39.98
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +105.8% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $33.42, 16.4% below the current price of $39.98. Estimates range from $11.28 to $82.28. HUBG scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HUBG’s -16.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Integrated Freight & Logistics sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hub Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HUBG?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.35 -14.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.77 -53.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $32.50 -18.7%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $82.28 +105.8%
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What Is HUBG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $11.28 to $82.28

CirclFi's 12 active models place Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) between $11.28 and $82.28 per share, a spread of 212% of the median. The median of that range — $33.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HUBG, against a current price of $39.98.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$11.28median $33.42$82.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$11.28
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$82.28
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HUBG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HUBG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hub Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $33.42. Trading at $39.98, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -16.4%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $82.28 (+105.8%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $11.28 (-71.8%). This +177.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Hub Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HUBG?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HUBG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HUBG is $33.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $34.35 on its own, implying -14.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HUBG Rank in Integrated Freight & Logistics?

Among 37 Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, HUBG ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places HUBG in the top tier.

The Integrated Freight & Logistics sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For Hub Group, Inc., metrics like average transaction price (ATP) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HUBG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HUBG a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Hub Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hub Group, Inc. scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +177.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HUBG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HUBG's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hub Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks with 13-model coverage

JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.QOC 8.2JANLJanel CorporationQOC 8.1UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.QOC 8.5RLGTRadiant Logistics, Inc.QOC 7.9EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc.QOC 8.5CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.QOC 7.9CYRXCryoport, Inc.QOC 6.9CIITTianci International, Inc.QOC 5.7HXHXHaoxin Holdings LimitedQOC 2.9ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.8FDXFedEx CorporationQOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: JBHT · JANL · UPS · RLGT · EXPD · CHRW · CYRX · CIIT · HXHX · ZTO · FDX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HUBG?

7 companies across all industries closest to HUBG’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

GDRXGoodRx Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.1SHCSotera Health CompanyQOC 8.1MFAMFA Financial, Inc.QOC 8.1NPBNorthpointe Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.1WDAYWorkday, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GDRX · AIR · SHC · MFA · NPB · WDAY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hub Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Hub Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG)'s intrinsic value at $33.42 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.28 to $82.28. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $34.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HUBG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.98, 4 of 12 active models suggest HUBG may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $33.42, 16.4% below the current price of $39.98 — a consensus view that HUBG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hub Group, Inc.'s business model in Integrated Freight & Logistics.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for HUBG?

Hub Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HUBG?

CirclFi analyzes HUBG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HUBG?

Of the 12 models currently active on HUBG, First Chicago is the most bullish at $82.28 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $11.28. CirclFi's published fair value for HUBG is the median of that range, $33.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 212% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HUBG a value trap in 2026?

Hub Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) has a median fair value of $33.42 — 16.4% below the current price of $39.98 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HUBG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HUBG valuation
  • Financial statements: Hub Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000940942) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HUBG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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