ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Fair Value 2026

ZTO · Integrated Freight & Logistics ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) trades at $21.19, versus a $27.75 median fair value across its 11 active models — 30.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $22.26.

Key Facts

Ticker
ZTO
Price
$21.19
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +70.8% upside with 71% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $27.75, 30.9% above the current price of $21.19. Estimates range from $6.52 to $42.14. ZTO scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ZTO’s +30.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Integrated Freight & Logistics sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ZTO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.26 +5.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.18 +70.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $27.84 +31.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $35.63 +68.2%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ZTO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $6.52 to $42.14

CirclFi's 11 active models place ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) between $6.52 and $42.14 per share, a spread of 128% of the median. The median of that range — $27.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ZTO, against a current price of $21.19.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · ML-RIV
$6.52median $27.75$42.14
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$6.52
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$42.14
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ZTO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ZTO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $27.75. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $21.19 (implied upside of +30.9%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 11 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +98.9% (fair value: $42.14), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -69.2% ($6.52). The spread between these extremes — +168.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ZTO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ZTO. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ZTO is $27.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $22.26 on its own, implying +5.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ZTO Rank in Integrated Freight & Logistics?

Among 37 Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, ZTO ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places ZTO in the top tier.

As a vehicle manufacturer, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates in a sector where warranty cost ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ZTO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ZTO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ZTO a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is rated at 8.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +168.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ZTO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ZTO's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks with 13-model coverage

PSIGPS International Group Ltd.QOC 2.4FDXFedEx CorporationQOC 8.8ELOGEastern International Ltd.QOC 2.5EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc.QOC 8.5GVHGlobavend Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.QOC 8.5FLXBingEx LimitedQOC 7.7SLGBSmart Logistics Global LimitedQOC 6.1BTOCArmlogi Holding Corp.QOC 5.5

Read investment analysis: PSIG · FDX · ELOG · EXPD · GVH · UPS · FLX · SLGB · BTOC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ZTO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ZTO’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationQOC 8.8SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.QOC 8.8KOFCoca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.8SMIDSmith-Midland CorporationQOC 8.8APOApollo Global Management, Inc.QOC 8.8CLMBClimb Global Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CINF · SSD · KOF · SMID · APO · CLMB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.’s Valuation?

What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)'s intrinsic value at $27.75 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.52 to $42.14. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $22.26 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.19, 8 of 11 active models suggest ZTO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $27.75, 30.9% above the current price of $21.19 — a consensus view that ZTO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s business model in Integrated Freight & Logistics.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for ZTO?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ZTO?

CirclFi analyzes ZTO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ZTO?

Of the 11 models currently active on ZTO, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $42.14 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $6.52. CirclFi's published fair value for ZTO is the median of that range, $27.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 128% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ZTO a value trap in 2026?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) has a median fair value of $27.75 — 30.9% above the current price of $21.19 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ZTO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ZTO valuation
  • Financial statements: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001677250) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ZTO as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ZTO.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for ZTO Unlock All 11 — $39/mo