SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Fair Value 2026

SPSC · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) trades at $84.20, versus a $71.96 median fair value across its 11 active models — 14.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $118.78.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPSC
Price
$84.20
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +41.1% upside with 71% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $71.96, 14.5% below the current price of $84.20. Estimates range from $13.65 to $158.96. SPSC scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SPSC’s -14.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SPS Commerce, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPSC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($84.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $118.78 +41.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.55 -56.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $71.96 -14.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $83.51 -0.8%
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What Is SPSC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $13.65 to $158.96

CirclFi's 11 active models place SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) between $13.65 and $158.96 per share, a spread of 202% of the median. The median of that range — $71.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SPSC, against a current price of $84.20.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$13.65median $71.96$158.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$13.65
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$158.96
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SPSC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SPSC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on SPS Commerce, Inc. at its current price of $84.20. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $71.96 (-14.5% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +88.8% (fair value: $158.96), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -83.8% ($13.65). The spread between these extremes — +172.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SPSC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SPSC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SPSC is $71.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $118.78 on its own, implying +41.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPSC Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, SPSC ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places SPSC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Within the Software - Application space, SPS Commerce, Inc. competes in an environment where free cash flow margin often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SPSC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPSC a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for SPS Commerce, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, SPS Commerce, Inc. is rated at 8.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +172.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPSC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPSC's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SPS Commerce, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

DOCUDocuSign, Inc.QOC 8.9DUOLDuolingo, Inc.QOC 8.9PAYXPaychex, Inc.QOC 8.9SAPSAP SEQOC 8.9YBYuanbao Inc.QOC 9.0PDPagerDuty, Inc.QOC 8.8INTAIntapp, Inc.QOC 7.3NRDYNerdy Inc.QOC 6.0VIDAVIDA Global Inc.QOC 3.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: DOCU · DUOL · PAYX · SAP · YB · PD · INTA · NRDY · VIDA · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPSC?

7 companies across all industries closest to SPSC’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

CMECME Group Inc.QOC 8.9GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp.QOC 8.9SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9LINLinde plcQOC 8.9CPRTCopart, Inc.QOC 8.9JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CME · GOLF · SPXC · LIN · CPRT · JJSF · NVDA

Where Does SPSC Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

SPSC is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About SPS Commerce, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is SPS Commerce, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC)'s intrinsic value at $71.96 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.65 to $158.96. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $118.78 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPSC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $84.20, 3 of 11 active models suggest SPSC may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $71.96, 14.5% below the current price of $84.20 — a consensus view that SPSC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SPS Commerce, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for SPSC?

SPS Commerce, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPSC?

CirclFi analyzes SPSC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SPSC?

Of the 11 models currently active on SPSC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $158.96 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $13.65. CirclFi's published fair value for SPSC is the median of that range, $71.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 202% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SPSC a value trap in 2026?

SPS Commerce, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) has a median fair value of $71.96 — 14.5% below the current price of $84.20 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPSC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SPSC valuation
  • Financial statements: SPS Commerce, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001092699) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPSC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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