What Is SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SPS Commerce, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $38.70, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $63.33. With 12 out of 13 models flagging downside (-38.9% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at -2.6% (fair value: $61.67), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -87.9% ($7.69). The spread between these extremes — +85.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About SPSC?
13 of 13 models are currently active for SPSC. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates SPSC's intrinsic value at $59.63, implying -5.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does SPSC Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?
Among 208 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, SPSC ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.8 places SPSC in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks →
Within the Services-Prepackaged Software space, SPS Commerce, Inc. competes in an environment where free cash flow margin often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is SPSC a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPSC a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for SPS Commerce, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, SPS Commerce, Inc. is rated at 9.8/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +85.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every SPSC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across SPSC's 13 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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