SAP SE (SAP) Fair Value 2026

SAP · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, SAP SE (SAP) trades at $221.54, versus a $147.76 median fair value across its 10 active models — 33.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $169.27.

Key Facts

Ticker
SAP
Price
$221.54
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +25.3% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is SAP SE (SAP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, SAP SE (SAP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $147.76, 33.3% below the current price of $221.54. Estimates range from $50.83 to $287.17. SAP scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SAP’s -33.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SAP SE Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SAP?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($221.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $169.27 -23.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $64.94 -70.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $138.75 -37.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $277.56 +25.3%
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What Is SAP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $50.83 to $287.17

CirclFi's 10 active models place SAP SE (SAP) between $50.83 and $287.17 per share, a spread of 160% of the median. The median of that range — $147.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SAP, against a current price of $221.54.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$50.83median $147.76$287.17
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$50.83
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$287.17
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SAP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SAP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SAP SE (SAP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SAP SE's intrinsic value is estimated at $147.76. Trading at its current price of $221.54, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -33.3%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $287.17 (+29.6%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $50.83 (-77.1%). This +106.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about SAP SE's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SAP?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SAP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SAP is $147.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $169.27 on its own, implying -23.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SAP Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, SAP ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places SAP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

SAP SE's positioning within the Software - Application segment means that rule of 40 score plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including total addressable market (TAM) expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SAP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SAP a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for SAP SE. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SAP SE scores 8.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +106.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SAP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SAP's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SAP SE Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

DUOLDuolingo, Inc.QOC 8.9PDPagerDuty, Inc.QOC 8.9SPSCSPS Commerce, Inc.QOC 8.9RMNIRimini Street, Inc.QOC 8.8DOCUDocuSign, Inc.QOC 8.9BLKBBlackbaud, Inc.QOC 8.8INTAIntapp, Inc.QOC 7.3NRDYNerdy Inc.QOC 6.0GTICGTICQOC 3.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: DUOL · PD · SPSC · RMNI · DOCU · BLKB · INTA · NRDY · GTIC · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SAP?

7 companies across all industries closest to SAP’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9SYFSynchrony FinancialQOC 8.9HTHTH World Group LimitedQOC 8.9FXNCFirst National CorporationQOC 8.9COSTCostco Wholesale CorporationQOC 8.9PAYPaymentus Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FTI · SYF · HTHT · FXNC · COST · PAY · NVDA

Where Does SAP Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

SAP is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About SAP SE’s Valuation?

What is SAP SE's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SAP SE (SAP)'s intrinsic value at $147.76 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $50.83 to $287.17. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $169.27 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SAP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $221.54, 2 of 10 active models suggest SAP may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $147.76, 33.3% below the current price of $221.54 — a consensus view that SAP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SAP SE's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for SAP?

SAP SE's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SAP?

CirclFi analyzes SAP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SAP?

Of the 10 models currently active on SAP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $287.17 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $50.83. CirclFi's published fair value for SAP is the median of that range, $147.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 160% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SAP a value trap in 2026?

SAP SE's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, SAP SE (SAP) has a median fair value of $147.76 — 33.3% below the current price of $221.54 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SAP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SAP valuation
  • Financial statements: SAP SE 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001000184) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SAP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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