Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Fair Value 2026

EXPD · Integrated Freight & Logistics ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) trades at $190.72, versus a $93.28 median fair value across its 10 active models — 51.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $96.09.

Key Facts

Ticker
EXPD
Price
$190.72
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $93.28, 51.1% below the current price of $190.72. Estimates range from $43.83 to $141.85. EXPD scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. EXPD’s -51.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Integrated Freight & Logistics sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EXPD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($190.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $96.09 -49.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $76.58 -59.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $90.48 -52.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $114.37 -40.0%
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What Is EXPD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $43.83 to $141.85

CirclFi's 10 active models place Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) between $43.83 and $141.85 per share, a spread of 105% of the median. The median of that range — $93.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EXPD, against a current price of $190.72.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$43.83median $93.28$141.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$43.83
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$141.85
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EXPD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EXPD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $93.28, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $190.72. With 10 out of 10 models flagging downside (-51.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $141.85 (-25.6%), versus EROIC at $43.83 (-77.0%). This +51.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About EXPD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for EXPD. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for EXPD is $93.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $96.09 on its own, implying -49.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EXPD Rank in Integrated Freight & Logistics?

Among 37 Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, EXPD ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places EXPD in the top tier.

As a transportation company, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. operates in a sector where units delivered is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating EXPD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is EXPD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EXPD a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +51.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EXPD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EXPD's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks with 13-model coverage

FDXFedEx CorporationQOC 8.8UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.QOC 8.5ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.8JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.QOC 8.2PSIGPS International Group Ltd.QOC 2.4HUBGHub Group, Inc.QOC 8.1PBIPitney Bowes Inc.QOC 7.5QNMELakeside Holding LimitedQOC 5.8SERVServe Robotics Inc.QOC 5.2

Read investment analysis: FDX · UPS · ZTO · JBHT · PSIG · HUBG · PBI · QNME · SERV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EXPD?

7 companies across all industries closest to EXPD’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedQOC 8.5FCFSFirstCash Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5TRMDTORM plcQOC 8.5UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc.QOC 8.5BCMLBayCom CorpQOC 8.5BANFBancFirst CorporationQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CAKE · FCFS · TRMD · UHS · BCML · BANF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)'s intrinsic value at $93.28 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $43.83 to $141.85. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $96.09 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EXPD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $190.72, 0 of 10 active models suggest EXPD may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $93.28, 51.1% below the current price of $190.72 — a consensus view that EXPD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s business model in Integrated Freight & Logistics.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for EXPD?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EXPD?

CirclFi analyzes EXPD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EXPD?

Of the 10 models currently active on EXPD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $141.85 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $43.83. CirclFi's published fair value for EXPD is the median of that range, $93.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 105% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EXPD a value trap in 2026?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) has a median fair value of $93.28 — 51.1% below the current price of $190.72 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EXPD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EXPD valuation

Market data for EXPD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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