Deere & Company (DE) Fair Value 2026

DE · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Deere & Company (DE) trades at $622.66, versus a $365.66 median fair value across its 11 active models — 41.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $439.66.

Key Facts

Ticker
DE
Price
$622.66
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +35.0% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Deere & Company (DE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Deere & Company (DE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $365.66, 41.3% below the current price of $622.66. Estimates range from $153.21 to $840.29. DE scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DE’s -41.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery sector median is -8.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Deere & Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DE?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($622.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $439.66 -29.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $202.65 -67.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $365.66 -41.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $840.29 +35.0%
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What Is DE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $153.21 to $840.29

CirclFi's 11 active models place Deere & Company (DE) between $153.21 and $840.29 per share, a spread of 188% of the median. The median of that range — $365.66 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DE, against a current price of $622.66.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$153.21median $365.66$840.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$153.21
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$840.29
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Deere & Company (DE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Deere & Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $365.66, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $622.66. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-41.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $840.29 (+35.0%), versus EROIC at $153.21 (-75.4%). This +110.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DE?

11 of 13 models are currently active for DE. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DE is $365.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $439.66 on its own, implying -29.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DE Rank in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery?

Among 28 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, DE ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places DE in the top tier.

Within the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery space, Deere & Company competes in an environment where organic revenue growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is DE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DE a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Deere & Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Deere & Company is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DE's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Deere & Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

PCARPACCAR IncQOC 8.5TEXTerex CorporationQOC 8.4ALGAlamo Group Inc.QOC 8.6AGCOAGCO CorporationQOC 8.3GENCGencor Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6WNCWabash National CorporationQOC 8.1AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AGQOC 7.2CLEVConcrete Leveling Systems, Inc.QOC 5.0CATCaterpillar Inc.QOC 9.0BLBDBlue Bird CorporationQOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: PCAR · TEX · ALG · AGCO · GENC · WNC · AEBI · CLEV · CAT · BLBD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DE?

7 companies across all industries closest to DE’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

INMDInMode Ltd.QOC 8.5UMBFUMB Financial CorporationQOC 8.5PLXSPlexus Corp.QOC 8.5FHIFederated Hermes, Inc.QOC 8.5VLTOVeralto CorporationQOC 8.5PFISPeoples Financial Services Corp.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INMD · UMBF · PLXS · FHI · VLTO · PFIS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Deere & Company’s Valuation?

What is Deere & Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Deere & Company (DE)'s intrinsic value at $365.66 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $153.21 to $840.29. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $439.66 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $622.66, 2 of 11 active models suggest DE may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $365.66, 41.3% below the current price of $622.66 — a consensus view that DE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Deere & Company's business model in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for DE?

Deere & Company's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DE?

CirclFi analyzes DE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DE?

Of the 11 models currently active on DE, First Chicago is the most bullish at $840.29 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $153.21. CirclFi's published fair value for DE is the median of that range, $365.66, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 188% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DE a value trap in 2026?

Deere & Company's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Deere & Company (DE) has a median fair value of $365.66 — 41.3% below the current price of $622.66 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DE valuation
  • Financial statements: Deere & Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000315189) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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