Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Fair Value 2026

AM · Oil & Gas Midstream ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) trades at $22.29, versus a $14.63 median fair value across its 11 active models — 34.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $41.81.

Key Facts

Ticker
AM
Price
$22.29
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +87.6% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $14.63, 34.4% below the current price of $22.29. Estimates range from $5.23 to $41.81. AM scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AM’s -34.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Midstream sector median is -12.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Antero Midstream Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.81 +87.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.23 -76.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.57 -30.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.37 -75.9%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is AM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $5.23 to $41.81

CirclFi's 11 active models place Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) between $5.23 and $41.81 per share, a spread of 250% of the median. The median of that range — $14.63 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AM, against a current price of $22.29.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$5.23median $14.63$41.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$5.23
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$41.81
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Antero Midstream Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $14.63. Trading at $22.29, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -34.4%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +87.6% (fair value: $41.81), while EPV is the most conservative at -76.5% ($5.23). The spread between these extremes — +164.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AM. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AM is $14.63 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $41.81 on its own, implying +87.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AM Rank in Oil & Gas Midstream?

Among 55 Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, AM ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places AM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks →

Antero Midstream Corporation's positioning within the Oil & Gas Midstream segment means that capital efficiency ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including energy transition positioning — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AM a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Antero Midstream Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Antero Midstream Corporation earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +164.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AM's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Antero Midstream Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Midstream stocks with 13-model coverage

DHTDHT Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1MPLXMPLX LPQOC 8.0IMPPImperial Petroleum Inc.QOC 8.1EPDEnterprise Products Partners L.P.QOC 8.0PBAPembina Pipeline CorporationQOC 8.1ETEnergy Transfer LPQOC 7.9VGVenture Global, Inc.QOC 7.3SBRSabine Royalty TrustQOC 5.1LNGCheniere Energy, Inc.QOC 8.5HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.2FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: DHT · MPLX · IMPP · EPD · PBA · ET · VG · SBR · LNG · HESM · FLNG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AM?

7 companies across all industries closest to AM’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

WELLWelltower Inc.QOC 8.1AMSCAmerican Superconductor CorporationQOC 8.1HITHealth In Tech, Inc.QOC 8.1CMICummins Inc.QOC 8.1CDWCDW CorporationQOC 8.1NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WELL · AMSC · HIT · CMI · CDW · NLY · NVDA

Where Does AM Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas Midstream Rankings?

AM is ranked against every other Oil & Gas Midstream stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas Midstream stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Antero Midstream Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Antero Midstream Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)'s intrinsic value at $14.63 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.23 to $41.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $41.81 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.29, 3 of 11 active models suggest AM may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $14.63, 34.4% below the current price of $22.29 — a consensus view that AM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Antero Midstream Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas Midstream.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for AM?

Antero Midstream Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AM?

CirclFi analyzes AM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AM?

Of the 11 models currently active on AM, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $41.81 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $5.23. CirclFi's published fair value for AM is the median of that range, $14.63, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 250% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AM a value trap in 2026?

Antero Midstream Corporation's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) has a median fair value of $14.63 — 34.4% below the current price of $22.29 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AM valuation
  • Financial statements: Antero Midstream Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001623925) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AM as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on AM.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for AM Unlock All 11 — $39/mo