Energy Transfer LP (ET) Fair Value 2026

ET · Oil & Gas Midstream ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Energy Transfer LP (ET) trades at $21.38, versus a $14.69 median fair value across its 12 active models — 31.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $31.52.

Key Facts

Ticker
ET
Price
$21.38
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +47.4% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Energy Transfer LP (ET) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Energy Transfer LP (ET) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $14.69, 31.3% below the current price of $21.38. Estimates range from $2.43 to $32.72. ET scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ET’s -31.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Midstream sector median is -9.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Energy Transfer LP Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ET?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.52 +47.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.51 -55.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.94 -30.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.29 -56.6%
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What Is ET's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $2.43 to $32.72

CirclFi's 12 active models place Energy Transfer LP (ET) between $2.43 and $32.72 per share, a spread of 206% of the median. The median of that range — $14.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ET, against a current price of $21.38.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$2.43median $14.69$32.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.43
Most bullish modelPWERM$32.72
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ET. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ET, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Energy Transfer LP (ET) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Energy Transfer LP's intrinsic value is estimated at $14.69, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $21.38. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-31.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $32.72 (+53.0%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $2.43 (-88.6%). This +141.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Energy Transfer LP's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ET?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ET. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ET is $14.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $31.52 on its own, implying +47.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ET Rank in Oil & Gas Midstream?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, ET ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks →

As a energy sector, Energy Transfer LP operates in a sector where breakeven oil price is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ET should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ET a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ET a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Energy Transfer LP. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Energy Transfer LP's fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +141.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ET valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ET's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Energy Transfer LP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Midstream stocks with 13-model coverage

EPDEnterprise Products Partners L.P.QOC 8.0EEExcelerate Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9MPLXMPLX LPQOC 8.0PXSPyxis Tankers Inc.QOC 7.9AMAntero Midstream CorporationQOC 8.1DTMDT Midstream, Inc.QOC 7.8VNOMViper Energy, Inc.QOC 6.7WHKWhiteHawk Minerals Corp.QOC 3.9TNKTeekay Tankers Ltd.QOC 8.4HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.2FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: EPD · EE · MPLX · PXS · AM · DTM · VNOM · WHK · TNK · HESM · FLNG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ET?

6 companies across all industries closest to ET’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

USPHU.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.QOC 7.9CATYCathay General BancorpQOC 7.9IRENIREN LimitedQOC 7.9MLKNMillerKnoll, Inc.QOC 7.9WORWorthington Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: USPH · CATY · IREN · MLKN · WOR · NVDA

Where Does ET Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas Midstream Rankings?

ET is ranked against every other Oil & Gas Midstream stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas Midstream stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Energy Transfer LP’s Valuation?

What is Energy Transfer LP's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Energy Transfer LP (ET)'s intrinsic value at $14.69 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.43 to $32.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $31.52 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ET overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.38, 3 of 12 active models suggest ET may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $14.69, 31.3% below the current price of $21.38 — a consensus view that ET is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Energy Transfer LP's business model in Oil & Gas Midstream.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for ET?

Energy Transfer LP's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ET?

CirclFi analyzes ET with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ET?

Of the 12 models currently active on ET, PWERM is the most bullish at $32.72 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.43. CirclFi's published fair value for ET is the median of that range, $14.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 206% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ET a value trap in 2026?

Energy Transfer LP's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Energy Transfer LP (ET) has a median fair value of $14.69 — 31.3% below the current price of $21.38 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ET/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ET valuation
  • Financial statements: Energy Transfer LP 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001276187) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ET as of ; valuations recomputed .

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