Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) Fair Value 2026

ACTG · Business Equipment & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) trades at $4.37, approximately 50% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.70. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACTG
Price
$4.37
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +99.0% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.37)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $8.70 +99.0%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $3.09 -29.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $5.86 +34.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $4.00 -8.4%

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What Is Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Acacia Research Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $4.37. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $6.55 (+49.9% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $19.60 (+348.4%), versus ML-RIV at $2.45 (-44.0%). This +392.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ACTG?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ACTG. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ACTG's intrinsic value at $8.70, implying +99.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACTG Rank in Business Equipment & Supplies?

Among 2 Business Equipment & Supplies stocks, ACTG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Acacia Research Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ACTG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACTG a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Acacia Research Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Acacia Research Corporation is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +392.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACTG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACTG's 13 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Acacia Research Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Business Equipment & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Business Equipment & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

ACCOAcco Brands CorporationQOC 6.4

Read investment analysis: ACCO

Frequently Asked Questions About Acacia Research Corporation

What is Acacia Research Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.70. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACTG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.37, 6 of 13 active models suggest ACTG may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Acacia Research Corporation's business model in Business Equipment & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for ACTG?

Acacia Research Corporation's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACTG?

CirclFi analyzes ACTG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ACTG a value trap in 2026?

Acacia Research Corporation's Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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