Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) Fair Value 2026

ACTG · Business Equipment & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (43/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) trades at $4.47, versus a $2.98 median fair value across its 8 active models — 33.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 43/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.92.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACTG
Price
$4.47
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
43/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +191.2% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 43 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $2.98, 33.4% below the current price of $4.47. Estimates range from $0.92 to $13.01. ACTG scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 43/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ACTG’s -33.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Acacia Research Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACTG?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.92 -79.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.98 -33.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $13.01 +191.2%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.97 -33.5%
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What Is ACTG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.92 to $13.01

CirclFi's 8 active models place Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) between $0.92 and $13.01 per share, a spread of 406% of the median. The median of that range — $2.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACTG, against a current price of $4.47.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$0.92median $2.98$13.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.92
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$13.01
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ACTG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACTG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Acacia Research Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $2.98, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $4.47. With 6 out of 8 models flagging downside (-33.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $13.01 (+191.2%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.92 (-79.5%). This +270.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ACTG?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ACTG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ACTG is $2.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.92 on its own, implying -79.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACTG Rank in Business Equipment & Supplies?

Among 5 Business Equipment & Supplies stocks, ACTG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places ACTG in the top tier.

Acacia Research Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ACTG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACTG a score of 43/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Acacia Research Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Acacia Research Corporation is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +270.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACTG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACTG's 8 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Acacia Research Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Business Equipment & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Business Equipment & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

EBFEnnis, Inc.QOC 8.0ACCOAcco Brands CorporationQOC 7.1XRXXerox Holdings CorporationQOC 5.6EHGOEshallgo Inc.QOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: EBF · ACCO · XRX · EHGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACTG?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACTG’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

UHTUniversal Health Realty Income TrustQOC 8.1IBCPIndependent Bank CorporationQOC 8.1NENoble Corporation plcQOC 8.1AEISAdvanced Energy Industries, Inc.QOC 8.1WNCWabash National CorporationQOC 8.1FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UHT · IBCP · NE · AEIS · WNC · FFIN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Acacia Research Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Acacia Research Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG)'s intrinsic value at $2.98 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.92 to $13.01. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.92 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACTG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.47, 2 of 8 active models suggest ACTG may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $2.98, 33.4% below the current price of $4.47 — a consensus view that ACTG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Acacia Research Corporation's business model in Business Equipment & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for ACTG?

Acacia Research Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACTG?

CirclFi analyzes ACTG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACTG?

Of the 8 models currently active on ACTG, First Chicago is the most bullish at $13.01 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.92. CirclFi's published fair value for ACTG is the median of that range, $2.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 406% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACTG a value trap in 2026?

Acacia Research Corporation's Value Trap score is 43/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) has a median fair value of $2.98 — 33.4% below the current price of $4.47 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACTG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACTG valuation
  • Financial statements: Acacia Research Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000934549) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACTG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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