Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) Fair Value 2026

CXT · Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (38/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) trades at $49.71, versus a $20.29 median fair value across its 9 active models — 59.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 38/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $15.15.

Key Facts

Ticker
CXT
Price
$49.71
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
38/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +3.6% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $20.29, 59.2% below the current price of $49.71. Estimates range from $5.82 to $51.51. CXT scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 38/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CXT’s -59.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Crane NXT, Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CXT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($49.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.15 -69.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.08 -73.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $22.43 -54.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $51.51 +3.6%
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What Is CXT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $5.82 to $51.51

CirclFi's 9 active models place Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) between $5.82 and $51.51 per share, a spread of 225% of the median. The median of that range — $20.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CXT, against a current price of $49.71.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$5.82median $20.29$51.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$5.82
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$51.51
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CXT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CXT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Crane NXT, Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $20.29, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $49.71. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-59.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $51.51 (+3.6%), versus Markov DDM at $5.82 (-88.3%). This +91.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CXT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for CXT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CXT is $20.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $15.15 on its own, implying -69.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CXT Rank in Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products?

Among 1 Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products stocks, CXT ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products space, Crane NXT, Co. competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CXT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CXT a score of 38/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Crane NXT, Co.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Crane NXT, Co.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CXT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CXT's 9 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Crane NXT, Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CXT?

7 companies across all industries closest to CXT’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

DCTHDelcath Systems, Inc.QOC 7.4AVAAvista CorporationQOC 7.4BCCBoise Cascade CompanyQOC 7.4MSGMMotorsport Games Inc.QOC 7.4CLDTChatham Lodging TrustQOC 7.4CRONCronos Group Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DCTH · AVA · BCC · MSGM · CLDT · CRON · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Crane NXT, Co.’s Valuation?

What is Crane NXT, Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Crane NXT, Co. (CXT)'s intrinsic value at $20.29 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.82 to $51.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $15.15 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CXT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $49.71, 1 of 9 active models suggest CXT may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $20.29, 59.2% below the current price of $49.71 — a consensus view that CXT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Crane NXT, Co.'s business model in Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for CXT?

Crane NXT, Co.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CXT?

CirclFi analyzes CXT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CXT?

Of the 9 models currently active on CXT, First Chicago is the most bullish at $51.51 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $5.82. CirclFi's published fair value for CXT is the median of that range, $20.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 225% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CXT a value trap in 2026?

Crane NXT, Co.'s Value Trap score is 38/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) has a median fair value of $20.29 — 59.2% below the current price of $49.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CXT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CXT valuation
  • Financial statements: Crane NXT, Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000025445) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CXT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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