Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) Fair Value 2026

MTX · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) trades at $72.29, versus a $48.23 median fair value across its 8 active models — 33.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $16.29.

Key Facts

Ticker
MTX
Price
$72.29
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $48.23, 33.3% below the current price of $72.29. Estimates range from $16.29 to $252.23. MTX scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MTX’s -33.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Minerals Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MTX?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($72.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.29 -77.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.55 -56.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $48.05 -33.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.14 -70.8%
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What Is MTX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $16.29 to $252.23

CirclFi's 8 active models place Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) between $16.29 and $252.23 per share, a spread of 489% of the median. The median of that range — $48.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MTX, against a current price of $72.29.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$16.29median $48.23$252.23
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$16.29
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$252.23
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MTX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MTX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Minerals Technologies Inc. at its current price of $72.29. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $48.23 (-33.3% vs price), with 5 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $252.23 (+248.9%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $16.29 (-77.5%). This +326.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Minerals Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MTX?

8 of 13 models are currently active for MTX. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MTX is $48.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $16.29 on its own, implying -77.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MTX Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, MTX ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

As a industrial sector, Minerals Technologies Inc. operates in a sector where order backlog depth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MTX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Minerals Technologies Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Minerals Technologies Inc. is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +326.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MTX's 8 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Minerals Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

KWRQuaker Chemical CorporationQOC 7.3ALBAlbemarle CorporationQOC 7.2KOPKoppers Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4FSIFlexible Solutions International, Inc.QOC 7.2FULH.B. Fuller CompanyQOC 7.4ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc.QOC 7.2ECVTEcovyst Inc.QOC 6.3HGASGlobal Gas CorporationQOC 4.2PPGPPG Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: KWR · ALB · KOP · FSI · FUL · ALTO · ECVT · HGAS · PPG · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MTX?

7 companies across all industries closest to MTX’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2CBLCBL & Associates Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2DECDiversified Energy CompanyQOC 7.2CTRNCiti Trends, Inc.QOC 7.2AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AGQOC 7.2WALWestern Alliance BancorporationQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GHG · CBL · DEC · CTRN · AEBI · WAL · NVDA

Where Does MTX Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

MTX is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Minerals Technologies Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Minerals Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX)'s intrinsic value at $48.23 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $16.29 to $252.23. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $16.29 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $72.29, 3 of 8 active models suggest MTX may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $48.23, 33.3% below the current price of $72.29 — a consensus view that MTX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Minerals Technologies Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for MTX?

Minerals Technologies Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MTX?

CirclFi analyzes MTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MTX?

Of the 8 models currently active on MTX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $252.23 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $16.29. CirclFi's published fair value for MTX is the median of that range, $48.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 489% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MTX a value trap in 2026?

Minerals Technologies Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) has a median fair value of $48.23 — 33.3% below the current price of $72.29 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MTX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MTX valuation
  • Financial statements: Minerals Technologies Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000891014) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MTX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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