Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) Fair Value 2026

ALTO · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) trades at $3.75, versus a $4.84 median fair value across its 9 active models — 29.2% above the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALTO
Price
$3.75
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +178.8% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $4.84, 29.2% above the current price of $3.75. Estimates range from $0.57 to $10.45. ALTO scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ALTO’s +29.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -31.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alto Ingredients, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALTO?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.75)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.84 +29.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $8.65 +130.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.45 +178.8%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $1.88 -49.9%
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What Is ALTO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.57 to $10.45

CirclFi's 9 active models place Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) between $0.57 and $10.45 per share, a spread of 204% of the median. The median of that range — $4.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALTO, against a current price of $3.75.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · ML-RIV
$0.57median $4.84$10.45
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$0.57
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$10.45
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALTO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALTO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $4.84. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $3.75 (implied upside of +29.2%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 9 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +178.8% (fair value: $10.45), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -84.8% ($0.57). The spread between these extremes — +263.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ALTO?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ALTO. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALTO is $4.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALTO Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 72 Specialty Chemicals stocks, ALTO ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

The Specialty Chemicals sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Alto Ingredients, Inc., metrics like aftermarket revenue mix provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ALTO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALTO a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Alto Ingredients, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alto Ingredients, Inc. scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +263.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALTO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALTO's 9 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alto Ingredients, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

KOPKoppers Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4KWRQuaker Chemical CorporationQOC 7.3FULH.B. Fuller CompanyQOC 7.4MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.QOC 7.3SCLStepan CompanyQOC 7.4FSIFlexible Solutions International, Inc.QOC 7.2NNUPNocopi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3FEAV5E Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 4.3ECLEcolab Inc.QOC 8.7ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: KOP · KWR · FUL · MTX · SCL · FSI · NNUP · FEAV · ECL · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALTO?

6 companies across all industries closest to ALTO’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

LANDGladstone Land CorporationQOC 7.4CACCamden National CorporationQOC 7.4PIImpinj, Inc.QOC 7.4CPHCCanterbury Park Holding CorporationQOC 7.4NTRNutrien Ltd.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LAND · CAC · PI · CPHC · NTR · NVDA

Where Does ALTO Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

ALTO is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alto Ingredients, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)'s intrinsic value at $4.84 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.57 to $10.45. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALTO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.75, 6 of 9 active models suggest ALTO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $4.84, 29.2% above the current price of $3.75 — a consensus view that ALTO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for ALTO?

Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALTO?

CirclFi analyzes ALTO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALTO?

Of the 9 models currently active on ALTO, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $10.45 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $0.57. CirclFi's published fair value for ALTO is the median of that range, $4.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 204% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALTO a value trap in 2026?

Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) has a median fair value of $4.84 — 29.2% above the current price of $3.75 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALTO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALTO valuation
  • Financial statements: Alto Ingredients, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000778164) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALTO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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