Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) Fair Value 2026

APD · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) trades at $305.47, versus a $113.36 median fair value across its 6 active models — 62.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
APD
Price
$305.47
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $113.36, 62.9% below the current price of $305.47. Estimates range from $15.87 to $443.72. APD scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. APD’s -62.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give APD?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($305.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.90 -85.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $123.41 -59.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.87 -94.8%
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What Is APD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $15.87 to $443.72

CirclFi's 6 active models place Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) between $15.87 and $443.72 per share, a spread of 377% of the median. The median of that range — $113.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for APD, against a current price of $305.47.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$15.87median $113.36$443.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$15.87
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$443.72
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for APD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on APD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. at its current price of $305.47. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $113.36 (-62.9% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $443.72 (+45.3%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $15.87 (-94.8%). This +140.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About APD?

6 of 13 models are currently active for APD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for APD is $113.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APD Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, APD ranks #41 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

As a industrial sector, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. operates in a sector where order backlog depth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating APD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is APD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APD a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is rated at 6.5/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +140.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APD's 6 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

SNESSenesTech, Inc.QOC 6.5MNTKMontauk Renewables, Inc.QOC 6.5WLKWestlake CorporationQOC 6.6ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.QOC 6.4GEVOGevo, Inc.QOC 6.6KROKronos Worldwide, Inc.QOC 6.4AMTXAemetis, Inc.QOC 4.5NEUNewMarket CorporationQOC 8.8HDSNHudson Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: SNES · MNTK · WLK · ASPN · GEVO · KRO · AMTX · NEU · HDSN · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to APD?

7 companies across all industries closest to APD’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

ZIPZipRecruiter, Inc.QOC 6.5ARRYArray Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.5ASNDAscendis Pharma A/SQOC 6.5RCATRed Cat Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5ADCTADC Therapeutics SAQOC 6.5CLPTClearPoint Neuro, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ZIP · ARRY · ASND · RCAT · ADCT · CLPT · NVDA

Where Does APD Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

APD is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)'s intrinsic value at $113.36 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.87 to $443.72. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $305.47, 2 of 6 active models suggest APD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $113.36, 62.9% below the current price of $305.47 — a consensus view that APD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for APD?

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APD?

CirclFi analyzes APD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on APD?

Of the 6 models currently active on APD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $443.72 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $15.87. CirclFi's published fair value for APD is the median of that range, $113.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 377% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is APD a value trap in 2026?

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) has a median fair value of $113.36 — 62.9% below the current price of $305.47 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/APD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this APD valuation
  • Financial statements: Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000002969) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for APD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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