Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) Fair Value 2026

MNTK · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) trades at $1.77, versus a $1.04 median fair value across its 9 active models — 41.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.33.

Key Facts

Ticker
MNTK
Price
$1.77
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +31.8% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $1.04, 41.5% below the current price of $1.77. Estimates range from $0.23 to $2.95. MNTK scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 45/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MNTK’s -41.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -36.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Montauk Renewables, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MNTK?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.33 +31.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.23 -86.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.26 -28.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.69 -61.2%
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What Is MNTK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.23 to $2.95

CirclFi's 9 active models place Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) between $0.23 and $2.95 per share, a spread of 263% of the median. The median of that range — $1.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MNTK, against a current price of $1.77.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$0.23median $1.04$2.95
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$0.23
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$2.95
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MNTK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MNTK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.04. Trading at $1.77, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -41.5%), as 6 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $2.95 (+66.7%), versus EPV at $0.23 (-86.9%). This +153.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MNTK?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MNTK. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MNTK is $1.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.33 on its own, implying +31.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MNTK Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 70 Specialty Chemicals stocks, MNTK ranks #42 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that working capital efficiency plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including reshoring and supply chain localization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MNTK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MNTK a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Montauk Renewables, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Montauk Renewables, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +153.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MNTK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MNTK's 9 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Montauk Renewables, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc.QOC 6.5ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.QOC 6.4SNESSenesTech, Inc.QOC 6.5KROKronos Worldwide, Inc.QOC 6.4WLKWestlake CorporationQOC 6.6ECVTEcovyst Inc.QOC 6.3FEAM5E Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 4.4HWKNHawkins, Inc.QOC 8.8SCLStepan CompanyQOC 7.4ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: APD · ASPN · SNES · KRO · WLK · ECVT · FEAM · HWKN · SCL · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MNTK?

7 companies across all industries closest to MNTK’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

BNRBurning Rock Biotech LimitedQOC 6.5TNDMTandem Diabetes Care, Inc.QOC 6.5KVHIKVH Industries, Inc.QOC 6.5VNCEVince Holding Corp.QOC 6.5VRDNViridian Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5KYMRKymera Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BNR · TNDM · KVHI · VNCE · VRDN · KYMR · NVDA

Where Does MNTK Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

MNTK is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Montauk Renewables, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK)'s intrinsic value at $1.04 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.23 to $2.95. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.33 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MNTK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.77, 3 of 9 active models suggest MNTK may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $1.04, 41.5% below the current price of $1.77 — a consensus view that MNTK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for MNTK?

Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MNTK?

CirclFi analyzes MNTK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MNTK?

Of the 9 models currently active on MNTK, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $2.95 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $0.23. CirclFi's published fair value for MNTK is the median of that range, $1.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 263% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MNTK a value trap in 2026?

Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) has a median fair value of $1.04 — 41.5% below the current price of $1.77 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MNTK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MNTK valuation
  • Financial statements: Montauk Renewables, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001826600) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MNTK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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