Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Fair Value 2026

AMTX · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) trades at $1.86, versus a $2.43 median fair value across its 2 active models — 30.6% above the current price. QOC: 4.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMTX
Price
$1.86
Quality Score
4.5/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +59.0% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.5/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $2.43, 30.6% above the current price of $1.86. Estimates range from $1.90 to $2.96. AMTX scores 4.5/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AMTX’s +30.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -36.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aemetis, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMTX?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $1.90 +2.2%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $2.96 +59.0%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aemetis, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $1.86. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $2.43 (+30.6% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 0 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $2.96 (+59.0%), versus Dynamic NAV at $1.90 (+2.2%). This +56.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AMTX?

2 of 13 models are currently active for AMTX. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AMTX is $2.43 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMTX Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 70 Specialty Chemicals stocks, AMTX ranks #58 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Aemetis, Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that book-to-bill ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including reshoring and supply chain localization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AMTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMTX a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Aemetis, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Aemetis, Inc. earns a quality score of 4.5/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +56.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMTX's 2 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aemetis, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

CLMTCalumet, Inc.QOC 4.9FEAM5E Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 4.4LOOPLoop Industries, Inc.QOC 5.3KBLBKraig Biocraft Laboratories, Inc.QOC 4.4CITRCitroTech Inc.QOC 5.3FEAV5E Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 4.2BCPCBalchem CorporationQOC 8.9HDSNHudson Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6SNESSenesTech, Inc.QOC 6.5ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: CLMT · FEAM · LOOP · KBLB · CITR · FEAV · BCPC · HDSN · SNES · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMTX?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMTX’s Quality of Company score of 4.5/10.

HSTAHestia Insight Inc.QOC 4.5GANXGain Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.5ANTXAN2 Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.5NRXPNRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.5GEDCTerraVolt Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.5EQSEquus Total Return, Inc.QOC 4.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HSTA · GANX · ANTX · NRXP · GEDC · EQS · NVDA

Where Does AMTX Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

AMTX is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aemetis, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Aemetis, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX)'s intrinsic value at $2.43 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.90 to $2.96. The Quality of Company score is 4.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.86, 2 of 2 active models suggest AMTX may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $2.43, 30.6% above the current price of $1.86 — a consensus view that AMTX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aemetis, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.5 mean for AMTX?

Aemetis, Inc.'s QOC of 4.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMTX?

CirclFi analyzes AMTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AMTX a value trap in 2026?

Aemetis, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) has a median fair value of $2.43 — 30.6% above the current price of $1.86 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMTX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMTX valuation
  • Financial statements: Aemetis, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000738214) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMTX as of ; valuations recomputed .