Calumet, Inc (CLMT) Fair Value 2026

CLMT · Petroleum Refining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Calumet, Inc (CLMT) trades at $40.01, approximately 192% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $13.70. QOC: 4.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CLMT
Price
$40.01
Quality Score
4.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +3.4% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.7/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Calumet, Inc (CLMT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Calumet, Inc (CLMT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $20.93, 47.7% below the current price of $40.01. Estimates range from $0.10 to $50.03. CLMT scores 4.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Calumet, Inc Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.01)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $13.70 -65.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $18.04 -54.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $2.89 -92.8%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
 $41.35 +3.4%

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What Is Calumet, Inc (CLMT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Calumet, Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $24.36. Trading at $40.01, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -39.1%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +25.0% (fair value: $50.03), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -99.7% ($0.10). The spread between these extremes — +124.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CLMT?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CLMT. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CLMT's intrinsic value at $13.70, implying -65.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CLMT Rank in Petroleum Refining?

Among 17 Petroleum Refining stocks, CLMT ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Calumet, Inc's positioning within the Petroleum Refining segment means that debt-to-EBITDAX plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CLMT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CLMT a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Calumet, Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Calumet, Inc earns a quality score of 4.7/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +124.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CLMT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CLMT's 10 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Calumet, Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Petroleum Refining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Petroleum Refining stocks with 13-model coverage

CVXChevron CorporationQOC 9.3VLOValero Energy CorporationQOC 8.6COPConocoPhillipsQOC 8.4SUNSunoco LPQOC 8.1XOMExxonMobil Holdings CorporationQOC 8.0PSXPhillips 66QOC 7.6MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationQOC 7.4CVICVR Energy Inc.QOC 7.3

Read investment analysis: CVX · VLO · COP · SUN · XOM

Frequently Asked Questions About Calumet, Inc

What is Calumet, Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Calumet, Inc (CLMT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $13.70. The Quality of Company score is 4.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CLMT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.01, 3 of 10 active models suggest CLMT may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $20.93, 47.7% below the current price of $40.01 — a consensus view that CLMT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Calumet, Inc's business model in Petroleum Refining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.7 mean for CLMT?

Calumet, Inc's QOC of 4.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CLMT?

CirclFi analyzes CLMT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CLMT a value trap in 2026?

Calumet, Inc's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Calumet, Inc (CLMT) has a median fair value of $20.93 — 47.7% below the current price of $40.01 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CLMT/ · Methodology

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