Balchem Corporation (BCPC) Fair Value 2026

BCPC · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Balchem Corporation (BCPC) trades at $177.86, versus a $84.08 median fair value across its 11 active models — 52.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $118.65.

Key Facts

Ticker
BCPC
Price
$177.86
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Balchem Corporation (BCPC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Balchem Corporation (BCPC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $84.08, 52.7% below the current price of $177.86. Estimates range from $42.98 to $173.27. BCPC scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BCPC’s -52.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Balchem Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BCPC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($177.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $118.65 -33.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.77 -74.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $83.54 -53.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $110.77 -37.7%
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What Is BCPC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $42.98 to $173.27

CirclFi's 11 active models place Balchem Corporation (BCPC) between $42.98 and $173.27 per share, a spread of 155% of the median. The median of that range — $84.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BCPC, against a current price of $177.86.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$42.98median $84.08$173.27
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$42.98
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$173.27
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BCPC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BCPC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Balchem Corporation (BCPC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Balchem Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $84.08. Trading at its current price of $177.86, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -52.7%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -2.6% (fair value: $173.27), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -75.8% ($42.98). The spread between these extremes — +73.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BCPC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BCPC. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BCPC is $84.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $118.65 on its own, implying -33.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BCPC Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, BCPC ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places BCPC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Balchem Corporation's positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that capacity utilization rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BCPC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BCPC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Balchem Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Balchem Corporation earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +73.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BCPC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BCPC's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Balchem Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

LINLinde plcQOC 8.9NEUNewMarket CorporationQOC 8.8WDFCWD-40 CompanyQOC 9.0HWKNHawkins, Inc.QOC 8.8RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0IOSPInnospec Inc.QOC 8.7SSLSasol LimitedQOC 7.7WLKWestlake CorporationQOC 6.6LOOPLoop Industries, Inc.QOC 5.3ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: LIN · NEU · WDFC · HWKN · RPM · IOSP · SSL · WLK · LOOP · ODC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BCPC?

7 companies across all industries closest to BCPC’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

HEIHEICO CorporationQOC 8.9SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 8.9ROLRollins, Inc.QOC 8.9URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.QOC 8.9CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HEI · SM · ROL · URBN · CHCI · LDOS · NVDA

Where Does BCPC Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

BCPC is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Balchem Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Balchem Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Balchem Corporation (BCPC)'s intrinsic value at $84.08 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $42.98 to $173.27. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $118.65 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BCPC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $177.86, 0 of 11 active models suggest BCPC may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $84.08, 52.7% below the current price of $177.86 — a consensus view that BCPC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Balchem Corporation's business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for BCPC?

Balchem Corporation's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BCPC?

CirclFi analyzes BCPC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BCPC?

Of the 11 models currently active on BCPC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $173.27 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $42.98. CirclFi's published fair value for BCPC is the median of that range, $84.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 155% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BCPC a value trap in 2026?

Balchem Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Balchem Corporation (BCPC) has a median fair value of $84.08 — 52.7% below the current price of $177.86 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BCPC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BCPC valuation
  • Financial statements: Balchem Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000009326) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BCPC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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