Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Fair Value 2026

ASPN · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) trades at $5.87, versus a $0.69 median fair value across its 3 active models — 88.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.68.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASPN
Price
$5.87
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $0.69, 88.3% below the current price of $5.87. Estimates range from $0.68 to $1.85. ASPN scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ASPN’s -88.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -31.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASPN?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.68 -88.4%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $1.85 -68.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.69 -88.3%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is ASPN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.68 to $1.85

CirclFi's 3 active models place Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) between $0.68 and $1.85 per share, a spread of 170% of the median. The median of that range — $0.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASPN, against a current price of $5.87.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Dynamic NAV
$0.68median $0.69$1.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.68
Most bullish modelDynamic NAV$1.85
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASPN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASPN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.69. Trading at its current price of $5.87, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 3 of 3 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -88.3%.

What Do the Models Say About ASPN?

3 of 13 models are currently active for ASPN. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ASPN is $0.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.68 on its own, implying -88.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASPN Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 72 Specialty Chemicals stocks, ASPN ranks #43 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that margin expansion trajectory plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ASPN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASPN a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Aspen Aerogels, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+20.0% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASPN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASPN's 3 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

MNTKMontauk Renewables, Inc.QOC 6.5KROKronos Worldwide, Inc.QOC 6.4APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc.QOC 6.5NNUPNocopi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3SNESSenesTech, Inc.QOC 6.5ECVTEcovyst Inc.QOC 6.3FEAM5E Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 4.4HWKNHawkins, Inc.QOC 8.8FULH.B. Fuller CompanyQOC 7.4ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: MNTK · KRO · APD · NNUP · SNES · ECVT · FEAM · HWKN · FUL · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASPN?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASPN’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

TRAWTraws Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.4NVRIEnviri CorporationQOC 6.4BBIOBridgeBio Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.4XNCRXencor, Inc.QOC 6.4MGNMegan Holdings LimitedQOC 6.4RBRKRubrik, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TRAW · NVRI · BBIO · XNCR · MGN · RBRK · NVDA

Where Does ASPN Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

ASPN is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aspen Aerogels, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN)'s intrinsic value at $0.69 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.68 to $1.85. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.68 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASPN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.87, 0 of 3 active models suggest ASPN may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $0.69, 88.3% below the current price of $5.87 — a consensus view that ASPN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for ASPN?

Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASPN?

CirclFi analyzes ASPN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASPN?

Of the 3 models currently active on ASPN, Dynamic NAV is the most bullish at $1.85 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.68. CirclFi's published fair value for ASPN is the median of that range, $0.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 170% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASPN a value trap in 2026?

Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) has a median fair value of $0.69 — 88.3% below the current price of $5.87 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASPN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASPN valuation
  • Financial statements: Aspen Aerogels, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001145986) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASPN as of ; valuations recomputed .