What Is Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.66. Trading at its current price of $5.19, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -29.5%. The most optimistic model, EPV, places fair value at $7.71 (+48.8%), while First Chicago — the most conservative — estimates $0.60 (-88.5%). This +137.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About ASPN?
12 of 13 models are currently active for ASPN. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ASPN's intrinsic value at $4.47, implying -13.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ASPN Rank in Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials?
Among 6 Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials stocks, ASPN ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s positioning within the Wholesale-Lumber & Other Construction Materials segment means that margin expansion trajectory plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is ASPN a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASPN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Aspen Aerogels, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +137.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ASPN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ASPN's 12 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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