Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Fair Value 2026

RBRK · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) trades at $93.05, versus a $16.28 median fair value across its 5 active models — 82.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $22.24.

Key Facts

Ticker
RBRK
Price
$93.05
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $16.28, 82.5% below the current price of $93.05. Estimates range from $8.63 to $22.24. RBRK scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. RBRK’s -82.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -23.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Rubrik, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RBRK?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($93.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.24 -76.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $16.28 -82.5%
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What Is RBRK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $8.63 to $22.24

CirclFi's 5 active models place Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) between $8.63 and $22.24 per share, a spread of 84% of the median. The median of that range — $16.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RBRK, against a current price of $93.05.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Bayesian DCF
$8.63median $16.28$22.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$8.63
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$22.24
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RBRK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Rubrik, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $16.28, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $93.05. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-82.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About RBRK?

5 of 13 models are currently active for RBRK. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for RBRK is $16.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $22.24 on its own, implying -76.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RBRK Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, RBRK ranks #83 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Within the Software - Infrastructure space, Rubrik, Inc. competes in an environment where customer acquisition cost (CAC) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is RBRK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RBRK a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Rubrik, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Rubrik, Inc. is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

Models cluster within a tight range (+14.6% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RBRK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RBRK's 5 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Rubrik, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

BKKTBakkt, Inc.QOC 6.3AIOTPowerFleet, Inc.QOC 6.3SAILSailPoint, Inc.QOC 6.4GGRPThe Glimpse Group IncQOC 6.2ALARAlarum Technologies Ltd.QOC 6.5YYAIAiRWA Inc.QOC 6.2OLBThe OLB Group, Inc.QOC 5.3QMLSQumulusAI, Inc.QOC 3.0ORCLOracle CorporationQOC 8.3FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: BKKT · AIOT · SAIL · GGRP · ALAR · YYAI · OLB · QMLS · ORCL · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RBRK?

7 companies across all industries closest to RBRK’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.QOC 6.3MSTRStrategy IncQOC 6.3GLXGGalaxy Payroll Group LimitedQOC 6.3GLEGlobal Engine Group Holding LimitedQOC 6.3KLCKinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.QOC 6.3TSQTownsquare Media, Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FLY · MSTR · GLXG · GLE · KLC · TSQ · NVDA

Where Does RBRK Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

RBRK is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Rubrik, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Rubrik, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s intrinsic value at $16.28 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $8.63 to $22.24. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $22.24 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RBRK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $93.05, 0 of 5 active models suggest RBRK may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $16.28, 82.5% below the current price of $93.05 — a consensus view that RBRK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Rubrik, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for RBRK?

Rubrik, Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RBRK?

CirclFi analyzes RBRK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RBRK?

Of the 5 models currently active on RBRK, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $22.24 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $8.63. CirclFi's published fair value for RBRK is the median of that range, $16.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 84% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RBRK a value trap in 2026?

Rubrik, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) has a median fair value of $16.28 — 82.5% below the current price of $93.05 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RBRK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RBRK valuation
  • Financial statements: Rubrik, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001943896) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RBRK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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