Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR) Fair Value 2026

ALAR · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR) trades at $1.63, versus a $5.28 median fair value across its 9 active models — 224.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.87.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALAR
Price
$1.63
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +260.2% upside with 39% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $5.28, 224.1% above the current price of $1.63. Estimates range from $2.16 to $7.15. ALAR scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. ALAR’s +224.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -17.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alarum Technologies Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALAR?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $5.87 +260.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.28 +224.1%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.16 +32.3%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $3.27 +100.6%
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What Is ALAR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.16 to $7.15

CirclFi's 9 active models place Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR) between $2.16 and $7.15 per share, a spread of 94% of the median. The median of that range — $5.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALAR, against a current price of $1.63.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$2.16median $5.28$7.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.16
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$7.15
Model agreement9 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALAR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Alarum Technologies Ltd.. Trading at $1.63 against an estimated intrinsic value of $5.28, 9 of 9 active models flag meaningful upside of +224.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $7.15 (+338.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $2.16 (+32.3%). This +306.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alarum Technologies Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ALAR?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ALAR. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ALAR is $5.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.87 on its own, implying +260.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALAR Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, ALAR ranks #80 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Alarum Technologies Ltd.'s positioning within the Software - Infrastructure segment means that customer acquisition cost (CAC) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including total addressable market (TAM) expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ALAR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALAR a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Alarum Technologies Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alarum Technologies Ltd. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +306.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALAR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALAR's 9 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alarum Technologies Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

PAGSPagSeguro Digital Ltd.QOC 6.6SAILSailPoint, Inc.QOC 6.4GOAIEva Live, Inc.QOC 6.8BKKTBakkt, Inc.QOC 6.3TLSTelos CorporationQOC 6.8RBRKRubrik, Inc.QOC 6.3KDKKodiak AI, Inc.QOC 5.4OWLSObook Holdings Inc.QOC 3.3AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: PAGS · SAIL · GOAI · BKKT · TLS · RBRK · KDK · OWLS · AKAM · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALAR?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALAR’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

HYHyster-Yale, Inc.QOC 6.5CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp.QOC 6.5BIDUBaidu, Inc.QOC 6.5IPInternational Paper CompanyQOC 6.5CVUCPI Aerostructures, Inc.QOC 6.5STEMStem, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HY · CLOV · BIDU · IP · CVU · STEM · NVDA

Where Does ALAR Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

ALAR is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alarum Technologies Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Alarum Technologies Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR)'s intrinsic value at $5.28 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $2.16 to $7.15. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.87 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALAR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.63, 9 of 9 active models suggest ALAR may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $5.28, 224.1% above the current price of $1.63 — a consensus view that ALAR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alarum Technologies Ltd.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for ALAR?

Alarum Technologies Ltd.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALAR?

CirclFi analyzes ALAR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALAR?

Of the 9 models currently active on ALAR, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $7.15 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.16. CirclFi's published fair value for ALAR is the median of that range, $5.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 94% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALAR a value trap in 2026?

Alarum Technologies Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Alarum Technologies Ltd. (ALAR) has a median fair value of $5.28 — 224.1% above the current price of $1.63 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALAR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALAR valuation
  • Financial statements: Alarum Technologies Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001725332) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALAR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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