Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Fair Value 2026

ASND · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) trades at $249.36, versus a $24.83 median fair value across its 3 active models — 90.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $22.03.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASND
Price
$249.36
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $24.83, 90.0% below the current price of $249.36. Estimates range from $22.03 to $35.90. ASND scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ASND’s -90.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ascendis Pharma A/S Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASND?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($249.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.03 -91.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.83 -90.0%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $35.90 -85.6%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is ASND's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $22.03 to $35.90

CirclFi's 3 active models place Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) between $22.03 and $35.90 per share, a spread of 56% of the median. The median of that range — $24.83 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASND, against a current price of $249.36.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$22.03median $24.83$35.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$22.03
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$35.90
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASND, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ascendis Pharma A/S's intrinsic value is estimated at $24.83. Trading at its current price of $249.36, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 3 of 3 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -90.0%.

What Do the Models Say About ASND?

3 of 13 models are currently active for ASND. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ASND is $24.83 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $22.03 on its own, implying -91.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASND Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, ASND ranks #85 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Ascendis Pharma A/S's positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that clinical trial success rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including partnership and licensing deals — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ASND a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASND a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Ascendis Pharma A/S. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ascendis Pharma A/S earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+5.6% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASND valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASND's 3 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ascendis Pharma A/S Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ZVRAZevra Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5ARDXArdelyx, Inc.QOC 6.5VIRVir Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 6.5FBIOFortress Biotech, Inc.QOC 6.5ZEOXZeo ScientifiX, Inc.QOC 6.6RXRXRecursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.5RMTGRegenerative Medical Technology Group Inc.QOC 5.4EWTXEdgewise Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.7TVGNTevogen Bio Holdings Inc.QOC 3.8EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: ZVRA · ARDX · VIR · FBIO · ZEOX · RXRX · RMTG · EWTX · TVGN · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASND?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASND’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

ADCTADC Therapeutics SAQOC 6.5ZIPZipRecruiter, Inc.QOC 6.5EDNEmpresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad AnónimaQOC 6.5APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc.QOC 6.5UHALU-Haul Holding CompanyQOC 6.5ARRYArray Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ADCT · ZIP · EDN · APD · UHAL · ARRY · NVDA

Where Does ASND Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

ASND is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ascendis Pharma A/S’s Valuation?

What is Ascendis Pharma A/S's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND)'s intrinsic value at $24.83 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $22.03 to $35.90. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $22.03 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASND overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $249.36, 0 of 3 active models suggest ASND may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $24.83, 90.0% below the current price of $249.36 — a consensus view that ASND is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ascendis Pharma A/S's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for ASND?

Ascendis Pharma A/S's QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASND?

CirclFi analyzes ASND with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASND?

Of the 3 models currently active on ASND, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $35.90 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $22.03. CirclFi's published fair value for ASND is the median of that range, $24.83, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 56% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASND a value trap in 2026?

Ascendis Pharma A/S's Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) has a median fair value of $24.83 — 90.0% below the current price of $249.36 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASND/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASND valuation
  • Financial statements: Ascendis Pharma A/S 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001612042) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASND as of ; valuations recomputed .