Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA) Fair Value 2026

ZVRA · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA) trades at $11.56, versus a $6.71 median fair value across its 6 active models — 42.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
ZVRA
Price
$11.56
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +7.0% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $6.71, 42.0% below the current price of $11.56. Estimates range from $0.97 to $13.79. ZVRA scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ZVRA’s -42.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ZVRA?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.97 -91.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.48 -35.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.37 +7.0%
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What Is ZVRA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.97 to $13.79

CirclFi's 6 active models place Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA) between $0.97 and $13.79 per share, a spread of 191% of the median. The median of that range — $6.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ZVRA, against a current price of $11.56.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.97median $6.71$13.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.97
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$13.79
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ZVRA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ZVRA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. at its current price of $11.57. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $6.71 (-42.0% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $13.79 (+19.3%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.97 (-91.6%). This +110.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ZVRA?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ZVRA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ZVRA is $6.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.97 on its own, implying -91.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ZVRA Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, ZVRA ranks #84 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a biotechnology enterprise, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. operates in a sector where pipeline depth and stage distribution is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ZVRA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ZVRA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ZVRA a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ZVRA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ZVRA's 6 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

VIRVir Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 6.5ASNDAscendis Pharma A/SQOC 6.5TVTXTravere Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5ARDXArdelyx, Inc.QOC 6.5ZEOXZeo ScientifiX, Inc.QOC 6.6FBIOFortress Biotech, Inc.QOC 6.5PULMPulmatrix, Inc.QOC 5.4MISTMilestone Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 4.7ESLAEstrella Immunopharma, Inc.QOC 3.8EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: VIR · ASND · TVTX · ARDX · ZEOX · FBIO · PULM · MIST · ESLA · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ZVRA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ZVRA’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

WYYWidePoint CorporationQOC 6.5ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5CRNCCerence Inc.QOC 6.5MAINMain Street Capital CorporationQOC 6.5XOSXos, Inc.QOC 6.5AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WYY · ULCC · CRNC · MAIN · XOS · AIRO · NVDA

Where Does ZVRA Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

ZVRA is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA)'s intrinsic value at $6.71 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.97 to $13.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ZVRA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.56, 2 of 6 active models suggest ZVRA may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $6.71, 42.0% below the current price of $11.56 — a consensus view that ZVRA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for ZVRA?

Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ZVRA?

CirclFi analyzes ZVRA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ZVRA?

Of the 6 models currently active on ZVRA, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $13.79 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.97. CirclFi's published fair value for ZVRA is the median of that range, $6.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 191% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ZVRA a value trap in 2026?

Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA) has a median fair value of $6.71 — 42.0% below the current price of $11.56 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ZVRA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ZVRA valuation
  • Financial statements: Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001434647) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ZVRA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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