AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Fair Value 2026

AZN · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) trades at $164.52, versus a $182.94 median fair value across its 11 active models — 11.2% above the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $419.39.

Key Facts

Ticker
AZN
Price
$164.52
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +154.9% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $182.94, 11.2% above the current price of $164.52. Estimates range from $74.92 to $419.39. AZN scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AZN’s +11.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +29.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AstraZeneca PLC Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AZN?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($164.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $419.39 +154.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.92 -54.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $202.84 +23.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $219.50 +33.4%
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What Is AZN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $74.92 to $419.39

CirclFi's 11 active models place AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) between $74.92 and $419.39 per share, a spread of 188% of the median. The median of that range — $182.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AZN, against a current price of $164.52.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$74.92median $182.94$419.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$74.92
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$419.39
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AZN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AZN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AstraZeneca PLC presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $164.52. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $182.94 (+11.2% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $419.39 (+154.9%), versus EPV at $74.92 (-54.5%). This +209.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AZN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AZN. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AZN is $182.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $419.39 on its own, implying +154.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AZN Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, AZN ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places AZN in the top tier.

As a biopharma enterprise, AstraZeneca PLC operates in a sector where biosimilar competition timeline is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AZN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AZN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AZN a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for AstraZeneca PLC. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, AstraZeneca PLC is rated at 9.3/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +209.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AZN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AZN's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AstraZeneca PLC Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 9.3JNJJohnson & JohnsonQOC 9.0LLYEli Lilly and CompanyQOC 9.4GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6BMYBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyQOC 8.5BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 7.9GRFSGrifols, S.A.QOC 6.9NVSNovartis AGQOC 2.8GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: NVO · JNJ · LLY · GSK · MRK · BMY · BIIB · GRFS · NVS · GILD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AZN?

7 companies across all industries closest to AZN’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

SHOPShopify Inc.QOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3MEDPMedpace Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3PHParker-Hannifin CorporationQOC 9.3UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3LMATLeMaitre Vascular, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SHOP · AMP · MEDP · PH · UI · LMAT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AstraZeneca PLC’s Valuation?

What is AstraZeneca PLC's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)'s intrinsic value at $182.94 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $74.92 to $419.39. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $419.39 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AZN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $164.52, 6 of 11 active models suggest AZN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $182.94, 11.2% above the current price of $164.52 — a consensus view that AZN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AstraZeneca PLC's business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for AZN?

AstraZeneca PLC's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AZN?

CirclFi analyzes AZN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AZN?

Of the 11 models currently active on AZN, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $419.39 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $74.92. CirclFi's published fair value for AZN is the median of that range, $182.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 188% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AZN a value trap in 2026?

AstraZeneca PLC's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) has a median fair value of $182.94 — 11.2% above the current price of $164.52 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AZN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AZN valuation
  • Financial statements: AstraZeneca PLC 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000901832) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AZN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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