AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Fair Value 2026

AZN · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) trades at $169.57, approximately 43% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $295.79. QOC: 10.0/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AZN
Price
$169.57
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +74.4% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($169.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $295.79 +74.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $33.91 -80.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $198.07 +16.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $238.77 +40.8%

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What Is AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AstraZeneca PLC presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $169.57. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $177.61 (+4.7% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $333.18 (+96.5%), versus EPV at $33.91 (-80.0%). This +176.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AZN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AZN. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AZN's intrinsic value at $295.79, implying +74.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AZN Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 440 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, AZN ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places AZN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

As a biopharma enterprise, AstraZeneca PLC operates in a sector where biosimilar competition timeline is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AZN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AZN a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AZN. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for AstraZeneca PLC. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, AstraZeneca PLC is rated at 10.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +176.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AZN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AZN's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AstraZeneca PLC Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

CPRXCatalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 10.0HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, IQOC 10.0NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 10.0SIGASIGA Technologies Inc.QOC 10.0UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 10.0ZTSZoetis Inc.QOC 10.0RDYDr. Reddy's Laboratories LtdQOC 9.8LLYEli Lilly and CompanyQOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA · UTHR

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About AstraZeneca PLC

What is AstraZeneca PLC's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $295.79. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AZN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $169.57, 7 of 12 active models suggest AZN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AstraZeneca PLC's business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for AZN?

AstraZeneca PLC's QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AZN?

CirclFi analyzes AZN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AZN a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AZN at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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