Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Fair Value 2026

NVO · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) trades at $46.26, versus a $82.38 median fair value across its 10 active models — 78.1% above the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $79.92.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVO
Price
$46.26
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +95.6% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $82.38, 78.1% above the current price of $46.26. Estimates range from $36.85 to $101.31. NVO scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NVO’s +78.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +29.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Novo Nordisk A/S Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NVO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $79.92 +72.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $77.67 +67.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $83.70 +80.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $90.49 +95.6%
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What Is NVO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $36.85 to $101.31

CirclFi's 10 active models place Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) between $36.85 and $101.31 per share, a spread of 78% of the median. The median of that range — $82.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NVO, against a current price of $46.26.

Low · EROICHigh · ML-RIV
$36.85median $82.38$101.31
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$36.85
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$101.31
Model agreement9 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NVO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Novo Nordisk A/S. Trading at $46.26 against an estimated intrinsic value of $82.38, 9 of 10 active models flag meaningful upside of +78.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $101.31 (+119.0%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $36.85 (-20.3%). This +139.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Novo Nordisk A/S's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NVO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NVO. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NVO is $82.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $79.92 on its own, implying +72.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVO Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, NVO ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places NVO in the top tier.

Within the Drug Manufacturers - General space, Novo Nordisk A/S competes in an environment where pipeline depth and stage distribution often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NVO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Novo Nordisk A/S. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Novo Nordisk A/S's fundamental quality profile registers 9.3/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +139.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVO's 10 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Novo Nordisk A/S Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

LLYEli Lilly and CompanyQOC 9.4AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 9.3MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6JNJJohnson & JohnsonQOC 9.0GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5AMGNAmgen Inc.QOC 8.4OGNOrganon & Co.QOC 7.3MDCXMedicus Pharma Ltd.QOC 4.0

Read investment analysis: LLY · AZN · MRK · JNJ · GILD · GSK · AMGN · OGN · MDCX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NVO?

7 companies across all industries closest to NVO’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

APHAmphenol CorporationQOC 9.3ATENA10 Networks, Inc.QOC 9.3INODInnodata Inc.QOC 9.3FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3METAMeta Platforms, Inc.QOC 9.3CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: APH · ATEN · INOD · FSM · META · CBOE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Novo Nordisk A/S’s Valuation?

What is Novo Nordisk A/S's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)'s intrinsic value at $82.38 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $36.85 to $101.31. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $79.92 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.26, 9 of 10 active models suggest NVO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $82.38, 78.1% above the current price of $46.26 — a consensus view that NVO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Novo Nordisk A/S's business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for NVO?

Novo Nordisk A/S's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVO?

CirclFi analyzes NVO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NVO?

Of the 10 models currently active on NVO, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $101.31 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $36.85. CirclFi's published fair value for NVO is the median of that range, $82.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 78% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NVO a value trap in 2026?

Novo Nordisk A/S's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) has a median fair value of $82.38 — 78.1% above the current price of $46.26 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NVO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NVO valuation
  • Financial statements: Novo Nordisk A/S 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000353278) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NVO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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