Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Fair Value 2026

MRK · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) trades at $149.54, versus a $142.61 median fair value across its 10 active models — 4.6% below the current price. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $122.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRK
Price
$149.54
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +115.6% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $142.61, within 4.6% of the current price of $149.54. Estimates range from $69.01 to $322.39. MRK scores 9.6/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MRK’s -4.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +29.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Merck & Co., Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MRK?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($149.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $122.99 -17.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $69.01 -53.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $148.63 -0.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $322.39 +115.6%
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What Is MRK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $69.01 to $322.39

CirclFi's 10 active models place Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) between $69.01 and $322.39 per share, a spread of 178% of the median. The median of that range — $142.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MRK, against a current price of $149.54.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$69.01median $142.61$322.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$69.01
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$322.39
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MRK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MRK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Merck & Co., Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $142.61, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $149.54. While the median implied return is -4.6%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +169.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $322.39 (+115.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $69.01 (-53.9%). This +169.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Merck & Co., Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MRK?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MRK. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MRK is $142.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $122.99 on its own, implying -17.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRK Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, MRK ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places MRK in the top tier.

Merck & Co., Inc.'s positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - General segment means that R&D productivity ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including regulatory pathway clarity — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MRK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRK a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Merck & Co., Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Merck & Co., Inc. scores 9.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +169.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRK's 10 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Merck & Co., Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7LLYEli Lilly and CompanyQOC 9.4NSRXNasus Pharma Ltd.QOC 2.7NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 9.3NVSNovartis AGQOC 2.8AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 9.3GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5SNYSanofiQOC 7.5SCLXScilex Holding CompanyQOC 5.2

Read investment analysis: GILD · LLY · NSRX · NVO · NVS · AZN · GSK · SNY · SCLX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MRK?

7 companies across all industries closest to MRK’s Quality of Company score of 9.6/10.

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6BKTIBK Technologies CorporationQOC 9.6POWLPowell Industries, Inc.QOC 9.6FFIVF5, Inc.QOC 9.6DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationQOC 9.6MANHManhattan Associates, Inc.QOC 9.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EXEL · BKTI · POWL · FFIV · DECK · MANH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Merck & Co., Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Merck & Co., Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)'s intrinsic value at $142.61 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $69.01 to $322.39. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $122.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $149.54, 4 of 10 active models suggest MRK may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $142.61, within 4.6% of the current price of $149.54 — a consensus view that MRK is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Merck & Co., Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for MRK?

Merck & Co., Inc.'s QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRK?

CirclFi analyzes MRK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MRK?

Of the 10 models currently active on MRK, First Chicago is the most bullish at $322.39 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $69.01. CirclFi's published fair value for MRK is the median of that range, $142.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 178% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MRK a value trap in 2026?

Merck & Co., Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) has a median fair value of $142.61 — within 4.6% of the current price of $149.54 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MRK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MRK valuation
  • Financial statements: Merck & Co., Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000310158) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MRK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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