GSK plc (GSK) Fair Value 2026

GSK · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, GSK plc (GSK) trades at $50.82, versus a $85.00 median fair value across its 10 active models — 67.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $65.36.

Key Facts

Ticker
GSK
Price
$50.82
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +80.9% upside with 22% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is GSK plc (GSK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, GSK plc (GSK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $85.00, 67.3% above the current price of $50.82. Estimates range from $28.50 to $146.15. GSK scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GSK’s +67.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +30.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy GSK plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GSK?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($50.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $65.36 +28.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $65.69 +29.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $91.91 +80.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $63.20 +24.4%
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What Is GSK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $28.50 to $146.15

CirclFi's 10 active models place GSK plc (GSK) between $28.50 and $146.15 per share, a spread of 138% of the median. The median of that range — $85.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GSK, against a current price of $50.82.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$28.50median $85.00$146.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$28.50
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$146.15
Model agreement9 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GSK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GSK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is GSK plc (GSK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, GSK plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $85.00. At a current market price of $50.82, 9 of 10 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +67.3%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +187.6% (fair value: $146.15), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -43.9% ($28.50). The spread between these extremes — +231.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GSK?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GSK. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GSK is $85.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $65.36 on its own, implying +28.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GSK Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, GSK ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places GSK in the top tier.

Within the Drug Manufacturers - General space, GSK plc competes in an environment where FDA approval probability often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GSK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GSK a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for GSK plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, GSK plc's fundamental quality profile registers 8.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +231.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GSK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GSK's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy GSK plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

JNJJohnson & JohnsonQOC 9.0BMYBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyQOC 8.5AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 9.3AMGNAmgen Inc.QOC 8.4NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 9.3BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 7.9SNYSanofiQOC 7.5SCLXScilex Holding CompanyQOC 5.2GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: JNJ · BMY · AZN · AMGN · NVO · BIIB · SNY · SCLX · GILD · MRK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GSK?

7 companies across all industries closest to GSK’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

CNMDCONMED CorporationQOC 8.5VASOVaso CorporationQOC 8.5HRBH&R Block, Inc.QOC 8.5WDLFDecentral Life, Inc.QOC 8.5HAFNHafnia LimitedQOC 8.5WDSWoodside Energy Group LtdQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CNMD · VASO · HRB · WDLF · HAFN · WDS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About GSK plc’s Valuation?

What is GSK plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts GSK plc (GSK)'s intrinsic value at $85.00 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $28.50 to $146.15. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $65.36 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GSK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $50.82, 9 of 10 active models suggest GSK may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $85.00, 67.3% above the current price of $50.82 — a consensus view that GSK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits GSK plc's business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for GSK?

GSK plc's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GSK?

CirclFi analyzes GSK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GSK?

Of the 10 models currently active on GSK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $146.15 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $28.50. CirclFi's published fair value for GSK is the median of that range, $85.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 138% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GSK a value trap in 2026?

GSK plc's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, GSK plc (GSK) has a median fair value of $85.00 — 67.3% above the current price of $50.82 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GSK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GSK valuation
  • Financial statements: GSK plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001131399) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GSK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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