SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) Fair Value 2026

SIGA · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) trades at $3.06, versus a $7.51 median fair value across its 10 active models — 145.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $8.37.

Key Facts

Ticker
SIGA
Price
$3.06
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +180.3% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $7.51, 145.4% above the current price of $3.06. Estimates range from $1.82 to $12.46. SIGA scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SIGA’s +145.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -1.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SIGA Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SIGA?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.37 +173.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.18 +134.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.84 +156.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $8.58 +180.3%
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What Is SIGA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.82 to $12.46

CirclFi's 10 active models place SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) between $1.82 and $12.46 per share, a spread of 142% of the median. The median of that range — $7.51 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SIGA, against a current price of $3.06.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$1.82median $7.51$12.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.82
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$12.46
Model agreement9 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SIGA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SIGA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $7.51. At a current market price of $3.06, 9 of 10 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +145.4%. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +307.2% (fair value: $12.46), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -40.6% ($1.82). The spread between these extremes — +347.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SIGA?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SIGA. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SIGA is $7.51 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $8.37 on its own, implying +173.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SIGA Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, SIGA ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places SIGA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that R&D productivity ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including licensing and M&A optionality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SIGA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SIGA a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for SIGA Technologies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, SIGA Technologies, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +347.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SIGA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SIGA's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SIGA Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

BCRXBioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.4PBHPrestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.QOC 8.3ETSTEarth Science Tech, Inc.QOC 8.5AMRXAmneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3HLNHaleon plcQOC 8.5KNSAKiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plcQOC 8.1ALVOAlvotechQOC 6.3YCBDcbdMD, Inc.QOC 5.3PTPIPetros Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.1UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: BCRX · PBH · ETST · AMRX · HLN · KNSA · ALVO · YCBD · PTPI · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SIGA?

7 companies across all industries closest to SIGA’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.4MATXMatson, Inc.QOC 8.4QCRHQCR Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4NWSANews CorporationQOC 8.4NCSMNCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4PKEPark Aerospace Corp.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IDR · MATX · QCRH · NWSA · NCSM · PKE · NVDA

Where Does SIGA Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

SIGA is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About SIGA Technologies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA)'s intrinsic value at $7.51 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.82 to $12.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $8.37 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SIGA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.06, 9 of 10 active models suggest SIGA may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $7.51, 145.4% above the current price of $3.06 — a consensus view that SIGA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for SIGA?

SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SIGA?

CirclFi analyzes SIGA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SIGA?

Of the 10 models currently active on SIGA, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $12.46 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.82. CirclFi's published fair value for SIGA is the median of that range, $7.51, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 142% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SIGA a value trap in 2026?

SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) has a median fair value of $7.51 — 145.4% above the current price of $3.06 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SIGA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SIGA valuation
  • Financial statements: SIGA Technologies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001010086) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SIGA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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