Organigram Global Inc. (OGI) Fair Value 2026

OGI · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Organigram Global Inc. (OGI) trades at $1.22, versus a $1.05 median fair value across its 5 active models — 13.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.70.

Key Facts

Ticker
OGI
Price
$1.22
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Organigram Global Inc. (OGI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Organigram Global Inc. (OGI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $1.05, 13.9% below the current price of $1.22. Estimates range from $0.27 to $2.00. OGI scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. OGI’s -13.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Organigram Global Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OGI?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.70 -42.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.05 -13.9%
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What Is OGI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.27 to $2.00

CirclFi's 5 active models place Organigram Global Inc. (OGI) between $0.27 and $2.00 per share, a spread of 166% of the median. The median of that range — $1.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OGI, against a current price of $1.22.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$0.27median $1.05$2.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.27
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$2.00
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OGI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OGI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Organigram Global Inc. (OGI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Organigram Global Inc. at its current price of $1.22. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $1.05 (-13.9% vs price), with 3 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +64.6% (fair value: $2.00), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -78.1% ($0.27). The spread between these extremes — +142.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About OGI?

5 of 13 models are currently active for OGI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OGI is $1.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.70 on its own, implying -42.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OGI Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, OGI ranks #56 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

As a healthcare company, Organigram Global Inc. operates in a sector where pipeline depth and stage distribution is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating OGI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is OGI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OGI a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Organigram Global Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Organigram Global Inc. is rated at 6.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +142.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OGI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OGI's 5 active models, average confidence is 19%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Organigram Global Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

AAWHAscend Wellness Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.1VTRSViatris Inc.QOC 6.0INISRadnostix, Inc.QOC 6.1CABRCaring Brands, Inc.QOC 6.0SBFMSunshine Biopharma, Inc.QOC 6.1AQSTAquestive Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.0BTAIBioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.7AKANAkanda Corp.QOC 1.3ETONEton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: AAWH · VTRS · INIS · CABR · SBFM · AQST · BTAI · AKAN · ETON · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OGI?

7 companies across all industries closest to OGI’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

OESXOrion Energy Systems, Inc.QOC 6.1VIAVia Transportation, Inc.QOC 6.1CCMConcord Medical Services Holdings LimitedQOC 6.1ZKHZKH Group LimitedQOC 6.1LPCNLipocine Inc.QOC 6.1TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OESX · VIA · CCM · ZKH · LPCN · TPVG · NVDA

Where Does OGI Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

OGI is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Organigram Global Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Organigram Global Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Organigram Global Inc. (OGI)'s intrinsic value at $1.05 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.27 to $2.00. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.70 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OGI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.22, 2 of 5 active models suggest OGI may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $1.05, 13.9% below the current price of $1.22 — a consensus view that OGI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Organigram Global Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for OGI?

Organigram Global Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OGI?

CirclFi analyzes OGI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OGI?

Of the 5 models currently active on OGI, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $2.00 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $0.27. CirclFi's published fair value for OGI is the median of that range, $1.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 166% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OGI a value trap in 2026?

Organigram Global Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Organigram Global Inc. (OGI) has a median fair value of $1.05 — 13.9% below the current price of $1.22 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OGI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OGI valuation
  • Financial statements: Organigram Global Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001620737) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OGI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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