Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (AAWH) Fair Value 2026

AAWH · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (AAWH) trades at $0.42, versus a $1.15 median fair value across its 4 active models — 172.7% above the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AAWH
Price
$0.42
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +223.3% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (AAWH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (AAWH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $1.15, 172.7% above the current price of $0.42. Estimates range from $0.15 to $1.36. AAWH scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AAWH’s +172.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -1.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AAWH?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.20 +185.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1.36 +223.3%
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What Is AAWH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $0.15 to $1.36

CirclFi's 4 active models place Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (AAWH) between $0.15 and $1.36 per share, a spread of 105% of the median. The median of that range — $1.15 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AAWH, against a current price of $0.42.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · First Chicago
$0.15median $1.15$1.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.15
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$1.36
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AAWH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AAWH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (AAWH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.15. At a current market price of $0.42, 3 of 4 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +172.7%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +223.3% (fair value: $1.36), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -63.6% ($0.15). The spread between these extremes — +286.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AAWH?

4 of 13 models are currently active for AAWH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AAWH is $1.15 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AAWH Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, AAWH ranks #55 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic space, Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where revenue per drug often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AAWH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AAWH a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. is rated at 6.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +286.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AAWH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AAWH's 4 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

INISRadnostix, Inc.QOC 6.1OGIOrganigram Global Inc.QOC 6.1SBFMSunshine Biopharma, Inc.QOC 6.1VTRSViatris Inc.QOC 6.0INCRInterCure Ltd.QOC 6.1CABRCaring Brands, Inc.QOC 6.0OWPCOne World Products, Inc.QOC 4.7AKANAkanda Corp.QOC 1.3INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: INIS · OGI · SBFM · VTRS · INCR · CABR · OWPC · AKAN · INDV · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AAWH?

7 companies across all industries closest to AAWH’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

INVEIdentiv, Inc.QOC 6.1BBNXBeta Bionics, Inc.QOC 6.1YTRAYatra Online, Inc.QOC 6.1REKRRekor Systems, Inc.QOC 6.1STTKShattuck Labs, Inc.QOC 6.1AARDAardvark Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INVE · BBNX · YTRA · REKR · STTK · AARD · NVDA

Where Does AAWH Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

AAWH is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (AAWH)'s intrinsic value at $1.15 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.15 to $1.36. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AAWH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.42, 3 of 4 active models suggest AAWH may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $1.15, 172.7% above the current price of $0.42 — a consensus view that AAWH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for AAWH?

Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AAWH?

CirclFi analyzes AAWH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AAWH?

Of the 4 models currently active on AAWH, First Chicago is the most bullish at $1.36 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.15. CirclFi's published fair value for AAWH is the median of that range, $1.15, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 105% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AAWH a value trap in 2026?

Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (AAWH) has a median fair value of $1.15 — 172.7% above the current price of $0.42 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AAWH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AAWH valuation
  • Financial statements: Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001756390) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AAWH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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