Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Fair Value 2026

RSKD · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) trades at $6.31, versus a $5.11 median fair value across its 5 active models — 19.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.58.

Key Facts

Ticker
RSKD
Price
$6.31
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $5.11, 19.0% below the current price of $6.31. Estimates range from $2.58 to $11.54. RSKD scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. RSKD’s -19.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Riskified Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RSKD?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.58 -59.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.11 -19.0%
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What Is RSKD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $2.58 to $11.54

CirclFi's 5 active models place Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) between $2.58 and $11.54 per share, a spread of 175% of the median. The median of that range — $5.11 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RSKD, against a current price of $6.31.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.58median $5.11$11.54
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$2.58
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$11.54
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RSKD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RSKD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Riskified Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.11. Trading at $6.31, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -19.0%), as 3 of 5 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $11.54 (+82.8%), versus Bayesian DCF at $2.58 (-59.1%). This +141.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RSKD?

5 of 13 models are currently active for RSKD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RSKD is $5.11 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.58 on its own, implying -59.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RSKD Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, RSKD ranks #111 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to digital enterprise businesses. For Riskified Ltd., metrics like rule of 40 score provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is RSKD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RSKD a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Riskified Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Riskified Ltd. scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +141.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RSKD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RSKD's 5 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Riskified Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

ASANAsana, Inc.QOC 7.2DHXDHI Group, Inc.QOC 7.1PCORProcore Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.2DSPViant Technology Inc.QOC 7.1BILLBILL Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2KLTRKaltura, Inc.QOC 7.1USDWUSDWQOC 5.7FRMMForum Markets, IncorporatedQOC 3.4RDVTRed Violet, Inc.QOC 8.6ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: ASAN · DHX · PCOR · DSP · BILL · KLTR · USDW · FRMM · RDVT · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RSKD?

7 companies across all industries closest to RSKD’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

SEDGSolarEdge Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.1EBSEmergent BioSolutions Inc.QOC 7.1DNOWDNOW Inc.QOC 7.1EPMEvolution Petroleum CorporationQOC 7.1ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.QOC 7.1SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SEDG · EBS · DNOW · EPM · ASTH · SWX · NVDA

Where Does RSKD Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

RSKD is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Riskified Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Riskified Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Riskified Ltd. (RSKD)'s intrinsic value at $5.11 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.58 to $11.54. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.58 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RSKD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.31, 2 of 5 active models suggest RSKD may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $5.11, 19.0% below the current price of $6.31 — a consensus view that RSKD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Riskified Ltd.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for RSKD?

Riskified Ltd.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RSKD?

CirclFi analyzes RSKD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RSKD?

Of the 5 models currently active on RSKD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $11.54 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $2.58. CirclFi's published fair value for RSKD is the median of that range, $5.11, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 175% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RSKD a value trap in 2026?

Riskified Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) has a median fair value of $5.11 — 19.0% below the current price of $6.31 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RSKD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RSKD valuation
  • Financial statements: Riskified Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001851112) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RSKD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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