Knife River Corporation (KNF) Fair Value 2026

KNF · Building Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Knife River Corporation (KNF) trades at $66.57, versus a $43.64 median fair value across its 10 active models — 34.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $23.06.

Key Facts

Ticker
KNF
Price
$66.57
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +181.4% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Knife River Corporation (KNF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Knife River Corporation (KNF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $43.64, 34.4% below the current price of $66.57. Estimates range from $23.02 to $187.33. KNF scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KNF’s -34.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Materials sector median is -37.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Knife River Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KNF?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($66.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.06 -65.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.38 -64.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $44.88 -32.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $187.33 +181.4%
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What Is KNF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $23.02 to $187.33

CirclFi's 10 active models place Knife River Corporation (KNF) between $23.02 and $187.33 per share, a spread of 377% of the median. The median of that range — $43.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KNF, against a current price of $66.57.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$23.02median $43.64$187.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$23.02
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$187.33
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KNF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KNF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Knife River Corporation (KNF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Knife River Corporation at its current price of $66.57. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $43.64 (-34.4% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +181.4% (fair value: $187.33), while EROIC is the most conservative at -65.4% ($23.02). The spread between these extremes — +246.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KNF?

10 of 13 models are currently active for KNF. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KNF is $43.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $23.06 on its own, implying -65.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KNF Rank in Building Materials?

Among 19 Building Materials stocks, KNF ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Building Materials space, Knife River Corporation competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is KNF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KNF a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Knife River Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Knife River Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +246.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KNF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KNF's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Knife River Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Building Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

EXPEagle Materials Inc.QOC 7.6PHCIPanamera Holdings CorporationQOC 5.1JHXJames Hardie Industries plcQOC 7.7CAPSCapstone Holding Corp.QOC 3.9AMRZAmrize LtdQOC 8.0BASABasanite, Inc.QOC 3.8RMIXSuncrete, Inc.QOC 3.2TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.QOC 8.4USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: EXP · PHCI · JHX · CAPS · AMRZ · BASA · RMIX · TGLS · MLM · USLM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KNF?

7 companies across all industries closest to KNF’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

MCHBMechanics BancorpQOC 7.1KNOPKNOT Offshore Partners LPQOC 7.1GNWGenworth Financial, Inc.QOC 7.1RBLXRoblox CorporationQOC 7.1SHENShenandoah Telecommunications CompanyQOC 7.1LGLThe LGL Group, Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MCHB · KNOP · GNW · RBLX · SHEN · LGL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Knife River Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Knife River Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Knife River Corporation (KNF)'s intrinsic value at $43.64 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $23.02 to $187.33. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $23.06 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KNF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $66.57, 3 of 10 active models suggest KNF may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $43.64, 34.4% below the current price of $66.57 — a consensus view that KNF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Knife River Corporation's business model in Building Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for KNF?

Knife River Corporation's QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KNF?

CirclFi analyzes KNF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KNF?

Of the 10 models currently active on KNF, First Chicago is the most bullish at $187.33 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $23.02. CirclFi's published fair value for KNF is the median of that range, $43.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 377% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KNF a value trap in 2026?

Knife River Corporation's Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Knife River Corporation (KNF) has a median fair value of $43.64 — 34.4% below the current price of $66.57 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KNF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KNF valuation
  • Financial statements: Knife River Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001955520) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KNF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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