VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) Fair Value 2026

EGY · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) trades at $5.77, versus a $5.61 median fair value across its 8 active models — 2.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EGY
Price
$5.77
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +313.9% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $5.61, within 2.8% of the current price of $5.77. Estimates range from $0.39 to $23.88. EGY scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. EGY’s -2.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy VAALCO Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EGY?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.06 +74.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $13.58 +135.4%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $0.39 -93.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $23.88 +313.9%
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What Is EGY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.39 to $23.88

CirclFi's 8 active models place VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) between $0.39 and $23.88 per share, a spread of 419% of the median. The median of that range — $5.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EGY, against a current price of $5.77.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.39median $5.61$23.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.39
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$23.88
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EGY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EGY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $5.61, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $5.77. With a median implied return of -2.8% across a split 4–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +407.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +313.9% (fair value: $23.88), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -93.2% ($0.39). The spread between these extremes — +407.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About EGY?

8 of 13 models are currently active for EGY. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EGY is $5.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EGY Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, EGY ranks #48 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, VAALCO Energy, Inc. competes in an environment where breakeven oil price often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is EGY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EGY a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for VAALCO Energy, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +407.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EGY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EGY's 8 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy VAALCO Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

GFRGreenfire Resources Ltd.QOC 6.8REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8TALOTalos Energy Inc.QOC 6.9OBEObsidian Energy Ltd.QOC 6.8INRInfinity Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 7.1GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc.QOC 6.7VOCVOC Energy TrustQOC 5.3REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc.QOC 9.0GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc.QOC 8.2TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: GFR · REI · TALO · OBE · INR · GTE · VOC · REPX · GRNT · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EGY?

7 companies across all industries closest to EGY’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

OISOil States International, Inc.QOC 6.8RAYRaytech Holding LimitedQOC 6.8LIFDLFTD Partners Inc.QOC 6.8SGASaga Communications, Inc.QOC 6.8GNKGenco Shipping & Trading LimitedQOC 6.8SRESempraQOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OIS · RAY · LIFD · SGA · GNK · SRE · NVDA

Where Does EGY Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

EGY is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About VAALCO Energy, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)'s intrinsic value at $5.61 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.39 to $23.88. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EGY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.77, 4 of 8 active models suggest EGY may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $5.61, within 2.8% of the current price of $5.77 — a consensus view that EGY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for EGY?

VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EGY?

CirclFi analyzes EGY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EGY?

Of the 8 models currently active on EGY, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $23.88 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.39. CirclFi's published fair value for EGY is the median of that range, $5.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 419% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EGY a value trap in 2026?

VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) has a median fair value of $5.61 — within 2.8% of the current price of $5.77 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EGY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EGY valuation
  • Financial statements: VAALCO Energy, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000894627) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EGY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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