VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) Fair Value 2026

EGY · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) trades at $5.43. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EGY
Price
$5.43
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +321.3% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$8.10 +49.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$9.47 +74.4%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$22.88 +321.3%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$0.96 -82.3%

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What Is VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $8.49. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $5.43 (implied upside of +56.4%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +321.3% (fair value: $22.88), while EROIC is the most conservative at -82.3% ($0.96). The spread between these extremes — +403.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About EGY?

12 of 13 models are currently active for EGY. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EGY Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 84 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, EGY ranks #34 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

Within the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas space, VAALCO Energy, Inc. competes in an environment where breakeven oil price often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is EGY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EGY a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for VAALCO Energy, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +403.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EGY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EGY's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy VAALCO Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About VAALCO Energy, Inc.

What is VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EGY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.43, 7 of 12 active models suggest EGY may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for EGY?

VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EGY?

CirclFi analyzes EGY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is EGY a value trap in 2026?

VAALCO Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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