Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) Fair Value 2026

GFR · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) trades at $6.15, versus a $4.04 median fair value across its 10 active models — 34.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.96.

Key Facts

Ticker
GFR
Price
$6.15
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $4.04, 34.3% below the current price of $6.15. Estimates range from $1.20 to $15.59. GFR scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 15/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GFR’s -34.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Greenfire Resources Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GFR?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.96 -51.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.12 -32.9%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $5.19 -15.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.20 -80.4%
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What Is GFR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.20 to $15.59

CirclFi's 10 active models place Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) between $1.20 and $15.59 per share, a spread of 356% of the median. The median of that range — $4.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GFR, against a current price of $6.15.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.20median $4.04$15.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.20
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$15.59
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GFR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GFR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.04, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $6.15. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-34.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +153.5% (fair value: $15.59), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -80.4% ($1.20). The spread between these extremes — +233.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GFR?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GFR. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GFR is $4.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.96 on its own, implying -51.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GFR Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, GFR ranks #47 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, Greenfire Resources Ltd. competes in an environment where reserve life index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GFR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GFR a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Greenfire Resources Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +233.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GFR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GFR's 10 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Greenfire Resources Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

TALOTalos Energy Inc.QOC 6.9EGYVAALCO Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8INRInfinity Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 7.1REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8EPMEvolution Petroleum CorporationQOC 7.1OBEObsidian Energy Ltd.QOC 6.8NRTNorth European Oil Royalty TrustQOC 5.4BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1SDSandRidge Energy, Inc.QOC 8.3TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: TALO · EGY · INR · REI · EPM · OBE · NRT · BSM · SD · TPL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GFR?

7 companies across all industries closest to GFR’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

TNGXTango Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.8SPRUSpruce Power Holding CorporationQOC 6.8STAASTAAR Surgical CompanyQOC 6.8VINPVinci Compass Investments Ltd.QOC 6.8ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.QOC 6.8AIRTAir T, Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TNGX · SPRU · STAA · VINP · ZIM · AIRT · NVDA

Where Does GFR Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

GFR is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Greenfire Resources Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)'s intrinsic value at $4.04 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.20 to $15.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.96 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GFR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.15, 2 of 10 active models suggest GFR may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $4.04, 34.3% below the current price of $6.15 — a consensus view that GFR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for GFR?

Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GFR?

CirclFi analyzes GFR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GFR?

Of the 10 models currently active on GFR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $15.59 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.20. CirclFi's published fair value for GFR is the median of that range, $4.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 356% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GFR a value trap in 2026?

Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) has a median fair value of $4.04 — 34.3% below the current price of $6.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GFR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GFR valuation
  • Financial statements: Greenfire Resources Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001966287) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GFR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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