Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) Fair Value 2026

GFR · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) trades at $6.04, approximately 25% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.07. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GFR
Price
$6.04
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +129.1% upside with 38% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$8.07 +33.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$13.82 +129.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$7.91 +31.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$11.07 +83.4%

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What Is Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $7.78. At a current market price of $6.04, 9 of 12 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +28.8%. Notably, EPV sees the most upside at +129.1% (fair value: $13.82), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -63.3% ($2.21). The spread between these extremes — +192.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GFR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for GFR. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates GFR's intrinsic value at $8.07, implying +33.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GFR Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, GFR ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

Within the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas space, Greenfire Resources Ltd. competes in an environment where reserve life index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GFR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GFR a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Greenfire Resources Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +192.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GFR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GFR's 12 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Greenfire Resources Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Greenfire Resources Ltd.

What is Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.07. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GFR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.04, 9 of 12 active models suggest GFR may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for GFR?

Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GFR?

CirclFi analyzes GFR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GFR a value trap in 2026?

Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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