Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Fair Value 2026

LLY · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) trades at $1176.10, versus a $400.89 median fair value across its 9 active models — 65.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $191.95.

Key Facts

Ticker
LLY
Price
$1176.10
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $400.89, 65.9% below the current price of $1176.10. Estimates range from $124.63 to $1394.62. LLY scores 9.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LLY’s -65.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +29.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Eli Lilly and Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LLY?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1176.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $191.95 -83.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $381.49 -67.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $668.41 -43.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $223.03 -81.0%
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What Is LLY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $124.63 to $1394.62

CirclFi's 9 active models place Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) between $124.63 and $1394.62 per share, a spread of 317% of the median. The median of that range — $400.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LLY, against a current price of $1176.10.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$124.63median $400.89$1394.62
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$124.63
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1394.62
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LLY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LLY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Eli Lilly and Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $400.89, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $1,176.10. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-65.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +18.6% (fair value: $1,394.62), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -89.4% ($124.63). The spread between these extremes — +108.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LLY?

9 of 13 models are currently active for LLY. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LLY is $400.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $191.95 on its own, implying -83.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LLY Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, LLY ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places LLY in the top tier.

As a healthcare company, Eli Lilly and Company operates in a sector where revenue per drug is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LLY should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LLY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LLY a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Eli Lilly and Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Eli Lilly and Company is rated at 9.4/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +108.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LLY's 9 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Eli Lilly and Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 9.3GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 9.3NSRXNasus Pharma Ltd.QOC 2.7JNJJohnson & JohnsonQOC 9.0BMYBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyQOC 8.5PFEPfizer Inc.QOC 7.5MIRAMIRA Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: MRK · NVO · GILD · AZN · NSRX · JNJ · BMY · PFE · MIRA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LLY?

7 companies across all industries closest to LLY’s Quality of Company score of 9.4/10.

ABNBAirbnb, Inc.QOC 9.5CRMSalesforce, Inc.QOC 9.4TBTCTable Trac, Inc.QOC 9.5IESCIES Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.4IDXXIDEXX Laboratories, Inc.QOC 9.5NOWServiceNow, Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ABNB · CRM · TBTC · IESC · IDXX · NOW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Eli Lilly and Company’s Valuation?

What is Eli Lilly and Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)'s intrinsic value at $400.89 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $124.63 to $1394.62. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $191.95 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LLY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1176.10, 1 of 9 active models suggest LLY may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $400.89, 65.9% below the current price of $1176.10 — a consensus view that LLY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Eli Lilly and Company's business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for LLY?

Eli Lilly and Company's QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LLY?

CirclFi analyzes LLY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LLY?

Of the 9 models currently active on LLY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1394.62 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $124.63. CirclFi's published fair value for LLY is the median of that range, $400.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 317% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LLY a value trap in 2026?

Eli Lilly and Company's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has a median fair value of $400.89 — 65.9% below the current price of $1176.10 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LLY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LLY valuation
  • Financial statements: Eli Lilly and Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000059478) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LLY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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