Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Fair Value 2026

PFE · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) trades at $27.50, versus a $35.24 median fair value across its 12 active models — 28.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $41.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
PFE
Price
$27.50
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +50.4% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $35.24, 28.1% above the current price of $27.50. Estimates range from $19.28 to $48.79. PFE scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. PFE’s +28.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +22.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Pfizer Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PFE?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($27.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.35 +50.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.64 -6.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $37.18 +35.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $35.19 +28.0%
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What Is PFE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $19.28 to $48.79

CirclFi's 12 active models place Pfizer Inc. (PFE) between $19.28 and $48.79 per share, a spread of 84% of the median. The median of that range — $35.24 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PFE, against a current price of $27.50.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$19.28median $35.24$48.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$19.28
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$48.79
Model agreement9 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PFE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Pfizer Inc.. Trading at $27.50 against an estimated intrinsic value of $35.24, 9 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +28.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $48.79 (+77.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $19.28 (-29.9%). This +107.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Pfizer Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PFE?

12 of 13 models are currently active for PFE. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PFE is $35.24 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $41.35 on its own, implying +50.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PFE Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, PFE ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Drug Manufacturers - General space, Pfizer Inc. competes in an environment where patent cliff exposure often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PFE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PFE a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Pfizer Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Pfizer Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +107.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PFE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PFE's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pfizer Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

SNYSanofiQOC 7.6OGNOrganon & Co.QOC 7.3ABBVAbbVie Inc.QOC 7.6GRFSGrifols, S.A.QOC 6.9BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 7.9AMRNAmarin Corporation plcQOC 6.1MIRAMIRA Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.6MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: SNY · OGN · ABBV · GRFS · BIIB · AMRN · MIRA · MRK · GSK · GILD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PFE?

7 companies across all industries closest to PFE’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

OMCLOmnicell, Inc.QOC 7.5AMRCAmeresco, Inc.QOC 7.5MICCThe Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.QOC 7.5ICUIICU Medical, Inc.QOC 7.5JAKKJAKKS Pacific, Inc.QOC 7.5KYIVKyivstar Group Ltd.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OMCL · AMRC · MICC · ICUI · JAKK · KYIV · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Pfizer Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Pfizer Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Pfizer Inc. (PFE)'s intrinsic value at $35.24 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $19.28 to $48.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $41.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PFE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $27.50, 9 of 12 active models suggest PFE may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $35.24, 28.1% above the current price of $27.50 — a consensus view that PFE is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pfizer Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for PFE?

Pfizer Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PFE?

CirclFi analyzes PFE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PFE?

Of the 12 models currently active on PFE, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $48.79 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $19.28. CirclFi's published fair value for PFE is the median of that range, $35.24, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 84% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PFE a value trap in 2026?

Pfizer Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) has a median fair value of $35.24 — 28.1% above the current price of $27.50 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PFE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PFE valuation
  • Financial statements: Pfizer Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000078003) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PFE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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