Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) Fair Value 2026

GILD · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) trades at $131.40, approximately 48% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $88.58. QOC: 9.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GILD
Price
$131.40
Quality Score
9.7/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($131.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $88.58 -32.6%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $50.16 -61.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $99.89 -24.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $79.55 -39.5%

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What Is Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $111.17. Trading at its current price of $131.40, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -15.4%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $360.54 (+174.4%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $8.63 (-93.4%). This +267.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GILD?

13 of 13 models are currently active for GILD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates GILD's intrinsic value at $88.58, implying -32.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GILD Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 139 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, GILD ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.7 places GILD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Gilead Sciences, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GILD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GILD a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Gilead Sciences, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Gilead Sciences, Inc. scores 9.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +267.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GILD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GILD's 13 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Gilead Sciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 10.0HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 10.0NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 10.0PLXProtalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. QOC 8.6BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 8.4IMCRImmunocore Holdings plcQOC 7.9TECHBio-Techne CorpQOC 7.8VCELVericel CorporationQOC 7.6

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · PLX · BIIB

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Gilead Sciences, Inc.

What is Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $88.58. The Quality of Company score is 9.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GILD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $131.40, 2 of 13 active models suggest GILD may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.7 mean for GILD?

Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s QOC of 9.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GILD?

CirclFi analyzes GILD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GILD a value trap in 2026?

Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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