Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Fair Value 2026

JNJ · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) trades at $265.77, versus a $193.20 median fair value across its 10 active models — 27.3% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $134.91.

Key Facts

Ticker
JNJ
Price
$265.77
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $193.20, 27.3% below the current price of $265.77. Estimates range from $91.70 to $363.39. JNJ scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. JNJ’s -27.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +29.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Johnson & Johnson Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JNJ?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($265.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $134.91 -49.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $122.11 -54.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $186.05 -30.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $91.70 -65.5%
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What Is JNJ's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $91.70 to $363.39

CirclFi's 10 active models place Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) between $91.70 and $363.39 per share, a spread of 141% of the median. The median of that range — $193.20 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JNJ, against a current price of $265.77.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$91.70median $193.20$363.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$91.70
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$363.39
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JNJ. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JNJ, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Johnson & Johnson's intrinsic value is estimated at $193.20. Trading at its current price of $265.77, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -27.3%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +36.7% (fair value: $363.39), while EROIC is the most conservative at -65.5% ($91.70). The spread between these extremes — +102.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About JNJ?

10 of 13 models are currently active for JNJ. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JNJ is $193.20 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $134.91 on its own, implying -49.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JNJ Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, JNJ ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places JNJ in the top tier.

Johnson & Johnson's positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - General segment means that clinical trial success rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including therapeutic area leadership — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is JNJ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JNJ a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Johnson & Johnson. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Johnson & Johnson scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JNJ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JNJ's 10 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Johnson & Johnson Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 9.3GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 9.3BMYBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyQOC 8.5LLYEli Lilly and CompanyQOC 9.4AMGNAmgen Inc.QOC 8.4ABBVAbbVie Inc.QOC 7.6AMRNAmarin Corporation plcQOC 6.1NSRXNasus Pharma Ltd.QOC 2.7GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: AZN · GSK · NVO · BMY · LLY · AMGN · ABBV · AMRN · NSRX · GILD · MRK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JNJ?

7 companies across all industries closest to JNJ’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

OSPNOneSpan Inc.QOC 9.0HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies Ltd.QOC 9.0INTUIntuit Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OSPN · HG · EC · PPC · CHKP · INTU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Johnson & Johnson’s Valuation?

What is Johnson & Johnson's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)'s intrinsic value at $193.20 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $91.70 to $363.39. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $134.91 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JNJ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $265.77, 1 of 10 active models suggest JNJ may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $193.20, 27.3% below the current price of $265.77 — a consensus view that JNJ is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Johnson & Johnson's business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for JNJ?

Johnson & Johnson's QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JNJ?

CirclFi analyzes JNJ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JNJ?

Of the 10 models currently active on JNJ, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $363.39 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $91.70. CirclFi's published fair value for JNJ is the median of that range, $193.20, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 141% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JNJ a value trap in 2026?

Johnson & Johnson's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has a median fair value of $193.20 — 27.3% below the current price of $265.77 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JNJ/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JNJ valuation
  • Financial statements: Johnson & Johnson 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000200406) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JNJ as of ; valuations recomputed .

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