Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Fair Value 2026

BMY · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) trades at $66.95, versus a $100.50 median fair value across its 11 active models — 50.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $218.14.

Key Facts

Ticker
BMY
Price
$66.95
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +225.8% upside with 75% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $100.50, 50.1% above the current price of $66.95. Estimates range from $3.90 to $218.50. BMY scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BMY’s +50.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +29.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BMY?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($66.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $218.14 +225.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.90 -94.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $112.05 +67.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $54.77 -18.2%
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What Is BMY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $3.90 to $218.50

CirclFi's 11 active models place Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) between $3.90 and $218.50 per share, a spread of 214% of the median. The median of that range — $100.50 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BMY, against a current price of $66.95.

Low · EPVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$3.90median $100.50$218.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$3.90
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$218.50
Model agreement9 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BMY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BMY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $100.50. At a current market price of $66.95, 9 of 11 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +50.1%. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +226.4% (fair value: $218.50), while EPV is the most conservative at -94.2% ($3.90). The spread between these extremes — +320.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BMY?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BMY. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BMY is $100.50 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $218.14 on its own, implying +225.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BMY Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, BMY ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places BMY in the top tier.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - General segment means that FDA approval probability plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including licensing and M&A optionality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BMY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BMY a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +320.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BMY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BMY's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5AMGNAmgen Inc.QOC 8.4JNJJohnson & JohnsonQOC 9.0BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 7.9AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 9.3ABBVAbbVie Inc.QOC 7.6PFEPfizer Inc.QOC 7.5MIRAMIRA Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.7MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: GSK · AMGN · JNJ · BIIB · AZN · ABBV · PFE · MIRA · MRK · GILD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BMY?

7 companies across all industries closest to BMY’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

CVXChevron CorporationQOC 8.5BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.QOC 8.5PAYOPayoneer Global Inc.QOC 8.5CORTCorcept Therapeutics IncorporatedQOC 8.5OPHCOptimumBank Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5HLNHaleon plcQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CVX · BBW · PAYO · CORT · OPHC · HLN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Bristol-Myers Squibb Company’s Valuation?

What is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)'s intrinsic value at $100.50 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.90 to $218.50. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $218.14 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BMY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $66.95, 9 of 11 active models suggest BMY may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $100.50, 50.1% above the current price of $66.95 — a consensus view that BMY is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for BMY?

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BMY?

CirclFi analyzes BMY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BMY?

Of the 11 models currently active on BMY, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $218.50 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $3.90. CirclFi's published fair value for BMY is the median of that range, $100.50, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 214% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BMY a value trap in 2026?

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) has a median fair value of $100.50 — 50.1% above the current price of $66.95 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BMY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BMY valuation
  • Financial statements: Bristol-Myers Squibb Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000014272) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BMY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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