Novartis AG (NVS) Fair Value 2026

NVS · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Novartis AG (NVS) trades at $153.81, versus a $255.52 median fair value across its 2 active models — 66.1% above the current price. QOC: 2.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVS
Price
$153.81
Quality Score
2.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +93.3% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.8/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Novartis AG (NVS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Novartis AG (NVS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $255.52, 66.1% above the current price of $153.81. Estimates range from $213.71 to $297.32. NVS scores 2.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NVS’s +66.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +30.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Novartis AG Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NVS?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($153.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $213.71 +38.9%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $297.32 +93.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Novartis AG (NVS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Novartis AG's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $255.52. At a current market price of $153.81, 2 of 2 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +66.1%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +93.3% (fair value: $297.32), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at +38.9% ($213.71). The spread between these extremes — +54.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NVS?

2 of 13 models are currently active for NVS. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NVS is $255.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVS Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, NVS ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.8 signals below-average fundamentals.

Within the Drug Manufacturers - General space, Novartis AG competes in an environment where revenue per drug often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NVS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVS a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Novartis AG. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Novartis AG's fundamental quality profile registers 2.8/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +54.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVS's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Novartis AG Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

MDCXMedicus Pharma Ltd.QOC 4.0NSRXNasus Pharma Ltd.QOC 2.7MIRAMIRA Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.7GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7SCLXScilex Holding CompanyQOC 5.2MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 9.3AMGNAmgen Inc.QOC 8.4OGNOrganon & Co.QOC 7.3

Read investment analysis: MDCX · NSRX · MIRA · GILD · SCLX · MRK · NVO · AMGN · OGN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NVS?

7 companies across all industries closest to NVS’s Quality of Company score of 2.8/10.

RYOJrYojbaba Co., Ltd.QOC 2.8ESLTElbit Systems Ltd.QOC 2.8ICLRICON Public Limited CompanyQOC 2.8ACCLAcco Group Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8MGIHMillennium Group International Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8INEOINNEOVA Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RYOJ · ESLT · ICLR · ACCL · MGIH · INEO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Novartis AG’s Valuation?

What is Novartis AG's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Novartis AG (NVS)'s intrinsic value at $255.52 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $213.71 to $297.32. The Quality of Company score is 2.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $153.81, 2 of 2 active models suggest NVS may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $255.52, 66.1% above the current price of $153.81 — a consensus view that NVS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Novartis AG's business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.8 mean for NVS?

Novartis AG's QOC of 2.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVS?

CirclFi analyzes NVS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NVS a value trap in 2026?

Novartis AG's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Novartis AG (NVS) has a median fair value of $255.52 — 66.1% above the current price of $153.81 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NVS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NVS valuation
  • Financial statements: Novartis AG 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001114448) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NVS as of ; valuations recomputed .