Organon & Co. (OGN) Fair Value 2026

OGN · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Organon & Co. (OGN) trades at $13.76, versus a $19.43 median fair value across its 10 active models — 41.2% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OGN
Price
$13.76
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +54.1% upside with 6% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Organon & Co. (OGN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Organon & Co. (OGN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $19.43, 41.2% above the current price of $13.76. Estimates range from $0.44 to $72.00. OGN scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OGN’s +41.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +29.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Organon & Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OGN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.04 +38.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $21.20 +54.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.77 -36.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.44 -96.8%
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What Is OGN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $0.44 to $72.00

CirclFi's 10 active models place Organon & Co. (OGN) between $0.44 and $72.00 per share, a spread of 368% of the median. The median of that range — $19.43 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OGN, against a current price of $13.76.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$0.44median $19.43$72.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$0.44
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$72.00
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OGN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OGN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Organon & Co. (OGN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Organon & Co. at $13.76. With an estimated intrinsic value of $19.43 and 6 of 10 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +41.2%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $72.00 (+423.3%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.44 (-96.8%). This +520.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Organon & Co.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OGN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for OGN. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OGN is $19.43 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OGN Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, OGN ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

Organon & Co.'s positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - General segment means that clinical trial success rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including late-stage pipeline catalysts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is OGN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OGN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Organon & Co.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Organon & Co. scores 7.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +520.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OGN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OGN's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Organon & Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

PFEPfizer Inc.QOC 7.5GRFSGrifols, S.A.QOC 6.9SNYSanofiQOC 7.5AMRNAmarin Corporation plcQOC 6.1ABBVAbbVie Inc.QOC 7.6SCLXScilex Holding CompanyQOC 5.2MDCXMedicus Pharma Ltd.QOC 4.0LLYEli Lilly and CompanyQOC 9.4BMYBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyQOC 8.5GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: PFE · GRFS · SNY · AMRN · ABBV · SCLX · MDCX · LLY · BMY · GILD · MRK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OGN?

7 companies across all industries closest to OGN’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

INTAIntapp, Inc.QOC 7.3CPRICapri Holdings LimitedQOC 7.3BCBrunswick CorporationQOC 7.3BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.QOC 7.3CURBCurbline Properties Corp.QOC 7.3DTEDTE Energy CompanyQOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INTA · CPRI · BC · BLDR · CURB · DTE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Organon & Co.’s Valuation?

What is Organon & Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Organon & Co. (OGN)'s intrinsic value at $19.43 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.44 to $72.00. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OGN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.76, 6 of 10 active models suggest OGN may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $19.43, 41.2% above the current price of $13.76 — a consensus view that OGN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Organon & Co.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for OGN?

Organon & Co.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OGN?

CirclFi analyzes OGN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OGN?

Of the 10 models currently active on OGN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $72.00 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $0.44. CirclFi's published fair value for OGN is the median of that range, $19.43, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 368% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OGN a value trap in 2026?

Organon & Co.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Organon & Co. (OGN) has a median fair value of $19.43 — 41.2% above the current price of $13.76 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OGN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OGN valuation
  • Financial statements: Organon & Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001821825) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OGN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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