Organon & Co. (OGN) Fair Value 2026

OGN · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Organon & Co. (OGN) trades at $13.51, approximately 71% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $46.39. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OGN
Price
$13.51
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +275.5% upside with 11% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.51)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$46.39 +243.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$50.71 +275.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$0.62 -95.4%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$24.47 +81.2%

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What Is Organon & Co. (OGN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Organon & Co.. Trading at $13.51 against an estimated intrinsic value of $27.92, 7 of 9 active models flag meaningful upside of +106.7% on average. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $52.49 (+288.7%), while First Chicago — the most conservative — estimates $0.62 (-95.4%). This +384.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Organon & Co.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OGN?

9 of 13 models are currently active for OGN. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates OGN's intrinsic value at $46.39, implying +243.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OGN Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 440 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, OGN ranks #37 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

Organon & Co.'s positioning within the Pharmaceutical Preparations segment means that clinical trial success rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including late-stage pipeline catalysts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is OGN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OGN a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Organon & Co.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Organon & Co. scores 7.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +384.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OGN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OGN's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Organon & Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Organon & Co.

What is Organon & Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Organon & Co. (OGN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $46.39. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OGN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.51, 7 of 9 active models suggest OGN may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Organon & Co.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for OGN?

Organon & Co.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OGN?

CirclFi analyzes OGN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is OGN a value trap in 2026?

Organon & Co.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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