Grifols, S.A. (GRFS) Fair Value 2026

GRFS · Drug Manufacturers - General ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Grifols, S.A. (GRFS) trades at $7.69, versus a $15.69 median fair value across its 9 active models — 104.0% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GRFS
Price
$7.69
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +119.1% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Grifols, S.A. (GRFS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Grifols, S.A. (GRFS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $15.69, 104.0% above the current price of $7.69. Estimates range from $4.73 to $43.21. GRFS scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GRFS’s +104.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - General sector median is +30.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Grifols, S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GRFS?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $16.85 +119.1%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $4.88 -36.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $13.52 +75.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $5.32 -30.8%
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What Is GRFS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $4.73 to $43.21

CirclFi's 9 active models place Grifols, S.A. (GRFS) between $4.73 and $43.21 per share, a spread of 245% of the median. The median of that range — $15.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GRFS, against a current price of $7.69.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$4.73median $15.69$43.21
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$4.73
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$43.21
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GRFS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GRFS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Grifols, S.A. (GRFS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Grifols, S.A. at $7.69. With an estimated intrinsic value of $15.69 and 6 of 9 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +104.0%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $43.21 (+461.9%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $4.73 (-38.5%). This +500.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Grifols, S.A.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GRFS?

9 of 13 models are currently active for GRFS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GRFS is $15.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GRFS Rank in Drug Manufacturers - General?

Among 21 Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, GRFS ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Grifols, S.A.'s positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - General segment means that biosimilar competition timeline plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including therapeutic area leadership — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is GRFS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GRFS a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Grifols, S.A.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Grifols, S.A. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +500.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GRFS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GRFS's 9 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Grifols, S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - General stocks with 13-model coverage

OGNOrganon & Co.QOC 7.3AMRNAmarin Corporation plcQOC 6.1PFEPfizer Inc.QOC 7.5SCLXScilex Holding CompanyQOC 5.2SNYSanofiQOC 7.5MIRAMIRA Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.7NVSNovartis AGQOC 2.8NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 9.3AMGNAmgen Inc.QOC 8.4GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: OGN · AMRN · PFE · SCLX · SNY · MIRA · NVS · NVO · AMGN · GILD · MRK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GRFS?

7 companies across all industries closest to GRFS’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

HEHawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.QOC 6.9GMABGenmab A/SQOC 6.9AWREAware, Inc.QOC 6.9AGCCAgencia Comercial Spirits LtdQOC 6.9AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.QOC 6.9STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HE · GMAB · AWRE · AGCC · AMR · STWD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Grifols, S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Grifols, S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Grifols, S.A. (GRFS)'s intrinsic value at $15.69 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.73 to $43.21. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GRFS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.69, 6 of 9 active models suggest GRFS may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $15.69, 104.0% above the current price of $7.69 — a consensus view that GRFS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Grifols, S.A.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - General.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for GRFS?

Grifols, S.A.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GRFS?

CirclFi analyzes GRFS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GRFS?

Of the 9 models currently active on GRFS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $43.21 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $4.73. CirclFi's published fair value for GRFS is the median of that range, $15.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 245% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GRFS a value trap in 2026?

Grifols, S.A.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Grifols, S.A. (GRFS) has a median fair value of $15.69 — 104.0% above the current price of $7.69 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GRFS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GRFS valuation
  • Financial statements: Grifols, S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001438569) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GRFS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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