Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) Fair Value 2026

GEVO · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) trades at $1.28, versus a $0.97 median fair value across its 3 active models — 23.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GEVO
Price
$1.28
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +15.1% upside with 33% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $0.97, 23.9% below the current price of $1.28. Estimates range from $0.33 to $1.47. GEVO scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. GEVO’s -23.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -31.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Gevo, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GEVO?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $0.33 -74.1%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.47 +15.1%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $0.97 -23.9%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is GEVO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.33 to $1.47

CirclFi's 3 active models place Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) between $0.33 and $1.47 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $0.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GEVO, against a current price of $1.28.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$0.33median $0.97$1.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.33
Most bullish modelPWERM$1.47
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GEVO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GEVO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Gevo, Inc. at its current price of $1.28. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $0.97 (-23.9% vs price), with 2 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $1.47 (+15.1%), versus Dynamic NAV at $0.33 (-74.1%). This +89.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About GEVO?

3 of 13 models are currently active for GEVO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GEVO is $0.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GEVO Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 72 Specialty Chemicals stocks, GEVO ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

As a industrial enterprise, Gevo, Inc. operates in a sector where aftermarket revenue mix is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating GEVO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is GEVO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GEVO a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Gevo, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Gevo, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.6/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +89.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GEVO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GEVO's 3 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Gevo, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

ACNTAscent Industries Co.QOC 6.6WLKWestlake CorporationQOC 6.5IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc.QOC 6.7SNESSenesTech, Inc.QOC 6.5DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc.QOC 6.9APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc.QOC 6.5CITRCitroTech Inc.QOC 5.4RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.0ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: ACNT · WLK · IFF · SNES · DD · APD · CITR · RPM · CMT · ODC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GEVO?

7 companies across all industries closest to GEVO’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

HHyatt Hotels CorporationQOC 6.6KVHIKVH Industries, Inc.QOC 6.6WYYWidePoint CorporationQOC 6.6ARQArq, Inc.QOC 6.6AXSMAxsome Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6WEAVWeave Communications, Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: H · KVHI · WYY · ARQ · AXSM · WEAV · NVDA

Where Does GEVO Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

GEVO is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Gevo, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Gevo, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)'s intrinsic value at $0.97 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.33 to $1.47. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GEVO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.28, 1 of 3 active models suggest GEVO may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $0.97, 23.9% below the current price of $1.28 — a consensus view that GEVO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Gevo, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for GEVO?

Gevo, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GEVO?

CirclFi analyzes GEVO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GEVO?

Of the 3 models currently active on GEVO, PWERM is the most bullish at $1.47 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.33. CirclFi's published fair value for GEVO is the median of that range, $0.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GEVO a value trap in 2026?

Gevo, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) has a median fair value of $0.97 — 23.9% below the current price of $1.28 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GEVO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GEVO valuation
  • Financial statements: Gevo, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001392380) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GEVO as of ; valuations recomputed .