LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Fair Value 2026

LYB · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) trades at $63.06, versus a $67.11 median fair value across its 10 active models — 6.4% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $8.07.

Key Facts

Ticker
LYB
Price
$63.06
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +22.1% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $67.11, within 6.4% of the current price of $63.06. Estimates range from $6.18 to $130.46. LYB scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LYB’s +6.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LYB?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($63.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.07 -87.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $76.99 +22.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $58.80 -6.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $19.71 -68.7%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including ML-RIV, Dynamic NAV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is LYB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $6.18 to $130.46

CirclFi's 10 active models place LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) between $6.18 and $130.46 per share, a spread of 185% of the median. The median of that range — $67.11 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LYB, against a current price of $63.06.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$6.18median $67.11$130.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.18
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$130.46
Model agreement5 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LYB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LYB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $67.11, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $63.06. While the median implied return is +6.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +197.1% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $130.46 (+106.9%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $6.18 (-90.2%). This +197.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About LYB?

10 of 13 models are currently active for LYB. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LYB is $67.11 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $8.07 on its own, implying -87.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LYB Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, LYB ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

As a industrial sector, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LYB should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LYB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LYB a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for LyondellBasell Industries N.V.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is rated at 6.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +197.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LYB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LYB's 10 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

OECOrion S.A.QOC 7.0DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc.QOC 6.9ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc.QOC 7.2MATVMativ Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9FSIFlexible Solutions International, Inc.QOC 7.2GLGIGreystone Logistics, Inc.QOC 6.8PRMPerimeter Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.0AMFNAmerican Fusion Inc.QOC 2.2NGVTIngevity CorporationQOC 8.2ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: OEC · DD · ALTO · MATV · FSI · GLGI · PRM · AMFN · NGVT · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LYB?

7 companies across all industries closest to LYB’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc.QOC 6.9STSensata Technologies Holding plcQOC 6.9BLFSBioLife Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.9IDYAIDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.9SACHSachem Capital Corp.QOC 6.9TXTernium S.A.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DFH · ST · BLFS · IDYA · SACH · TX · NVDA

Where Does LYB Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

LYB is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About LyondellBasell Industries N.V.’s Valuation?

What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB)'s intrinsic value at $67.11 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.18 to $130.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $8.07 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LYB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $63.06, 5 of 10 active models suggest LYB may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $67.11, within 6.4% of the current price of $63.06 — a consensus view that LYB is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for LYB?

LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LYB?

CirclFi analyzes LYB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LYB?

Of the 10 models currently active on LYB, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $130.46 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.18. CirclFi's published fair value for LYB is the median of that range, $67.11, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 185% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LYB a value trap in 2026?

LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) has a median fair value of $67.11 — within 6.4% of the current price of $63.06 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LYB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LYB valuation
  • Financial statements: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001489393) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LYB as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on LYB.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for LYB Unlock All 10 — $39/mo