COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Fair Value 2026

CDP · REIT - Office ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, COPT Defense Properties (CDP) trades at $36.59, versus a $20.09 median fair value across its 7 active models — 45.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CDP
Price
$36.59
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, COPT Defense Properties (CDP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $20.09, 45.1% below the current price of $36.59. Estimates range from $14.07 to $47.88. CDP scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CDP’s -45.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Office sector median is -3.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy COPT Defense Properties Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CDP?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($36.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.09 -45.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.54 -60.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.07 -61.6%
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What Is CDP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $14.07 to $47.88

CirclFi's 7 active models place COPT Defense Properties (CDP) between $14.07 and $47.88 per share, a spread of 168% of the median. The median of that range — $20.09 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CDP, against a current price of $36.59.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$14.07median $20.09$47.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$14.07
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$47.88
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CDP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CDP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on COPT Defense Properties at its current price of $36.59. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $20.09 (-45.1% vs price), with 5 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $47.88 (+30.9%), versus ML-RIV at $14.07 (-61.6%). This +92.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CDP?

7 of 13 models are currently active for CDP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CDP is $20.09 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CDP Rank in REIT - Office?

Among 22 REIT - Office stocks, CDP ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Within the REIT - Office space, COPT Defense Properties competes in an environment where occupancy rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CDP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CDP a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for COPT Defense Properties. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, COPT Defense Properties's fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CDP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CDP's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy COPT Defense Properties Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Office Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related REIT - Office stocks with 13-model coverage

VNOVornado Realty TrustQOC 7.9CUZCousins Properties IncorporatedQOC 7.5KRCKilroy Realty CorporationQOC 8.1FISKEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.3PSTLPostal Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.3ESBAEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.3HIWHighwoods Properties, Inc.QOC 7.3NLOPNet Lease Office PropertiesQOC 6.2PDMPiedmont Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 5.4

Read investment analysis: VNO · CUZ · KRC · FISK · PSTL · ESBA · HIW · NLOP · PDM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CDP?

7 companies across all industries closest to CDP’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

PTONPeloton Interactive, Inc.QOC 7.8STLESteele Bancorp Inc.QOC 7.8FORMFormFactor, Inc.QOC 7.8SCHLScholastic CorporationQOC 7.8FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.QOC 7.8EYENational Vision Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PTON · STLE · FORM · SCHL · FTAI · EYE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About COPT Defense Properties’s Valuation?

What is COPT Defense Properties's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts COPT Defense Properties (CDP)'s intrinsic value at $20.09 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $14.07 to $47.88. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CDP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $36.59, 2 of 7 active models suggest CDP may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $20.09, 45.1% below the current price of $36.59 — a consensus view that CDP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits COPT Defense Properties's business model in REIT - Office.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for CDP?

COPT Defense Properties's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CDP?

CirclFi analyzes CDP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CDP?

Of the 7 models currently active on CDP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $47.88 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $14.07. CirclFi's published fair value for CDP is the median of that range, $20.09, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 168% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CDP a value trap in 2026?

COPT Defense Properties's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, COPT Defense Properties (CDP) has a median fair value of $20.09 — 45.1% below the current price of $36.59 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CDP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CDP valuation
  • Financial statements: COPT Defense Properties 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000860546) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CDP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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