Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) Fair Value 2026

MATV · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) trades at $12.13, versus a $22.37 median fair value across its 7 active models — 84.4% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $9.21.

Key Facts

Ticker
MATV
Price
$12.13
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +117.5% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $22.37, 84.4% above the current price of $12.13. Estimates range from $9.21 to $48.50. MATV scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MATV’s +84.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -36.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mativ Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MATV?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.21 -24.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $21.99 +81.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.38 +117.5%
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What Is MATV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $9.21 to $48.50

CirclFi's 7 active models place Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) between $9.21 and $48.50 per share, a spread of 176% of the median. The median of that range — $22.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MATV, against a current price of $12.13.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$9.21median $22.37$48.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$9.21
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$48.50
Model agreement6 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MATV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MATV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Mativ Holdings, Inc.. Trading at $12.13 against an estimated intrinsic value of $22.37, 6 of 7 active models flag meaningful upside of +84.4% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $48.50 (+299.9%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $9.21 (-24.1%). This +323.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MATV?

7 of 13 models are currently active for MATV. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MATV is $22.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $9.21 on its own, implying -24.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MATV Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 70 Specialty Chemicals stocks, MATV ranks #35 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

The Specialty Chemicals sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For Mativ Holdings, Inc., metrics like margin expansion trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MATV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MATV a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Mativ Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mativ Holdings, Inc. scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +323.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MATV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MATV's 7 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mativ Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc.QOC 6.9GLGIGreystone Logistics, Inc.QOC 6.8LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V.QOC 6.9IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc.QOC 6.8OECOrion S.A.QOC 7.0GEVOGevo, Inc.QOC 6.6RLEARubber Leaf Inc.QOC 5.8BONBon Natural Life LimitedQOC 1.9SOLSSolstice Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 8.1ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: DD · GLGI · LYB · IFF · OEC · GEVO · RLEA · BON · SOLS · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MATV?

6 companies across all industries closest to MATV’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

PRKAParks! America, Inc.QOC 6.9EMLThe Eastern CompanyQOC 6.9HOVHovnanian Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.9AEHRAehr Test Systems, Inc.QOC 6.9CYRXCryoport, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRKA · EML · HOV · AEHR · CYRX · NVDA

Where Does MATV Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

MATV is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mativ Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV)'s intrinsic value at $22.37 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.21 to $48.50. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $9.21 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MATV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.13, 6 of 7 active models suggest MATV may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $22.37, 84.4% above the current price of $12.13 — a consensus view that MATV is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for MATV?

Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MATV?

CirclFi analyzes MATV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MATV?

Of the 7 models currently active on MATV, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $48.50 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $9.21. CirclFi's published fair value for MATV is the median of that range, $22.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 176% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MATV a value trap in 2026?

Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) has a median fair value of $22.37 — 84.4% above the current price of $12.13 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MATV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MATV valuation
  • Financial statements: Mativ Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001000623) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MATV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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