Magnera Corporation (MAGN) Fair Value 2026

MAGN · Paper Mills ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Magnera Corporation (MAGN) trades at $12.56, approximately 5% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.95. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MAGN
Price
$12.56
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +281.8% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $11.95 -4.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $47.95 +281.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $40.84 +225.2%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
 $33.89 +169.8%

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What Is Magnera Corporation (MAGN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Magnera Corporation. Trading at $12.56 against an estimated intrinsic value of $32.45, 8 of 9 active models flag meaningful upside of +158.3% on average. The most optimistic model, EROIC, places fair value at $53.31 (+324.5%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $11.95 (-4.8%). This +329.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Magnera Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MAGN?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MAGN. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MAGN's intrinsic value at $11.95, implying -4.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MAGN Rank in Paper Mills?

Among 5 Paper Mills stocks, MAGN ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Magnera Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MAGN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MAGN a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Magnera Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Magnera Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 6.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +329.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MAGN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MAGN's 9 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Magnera Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Paper Mills Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Paper Mills stocks with 13-model coverage

SLVMSylvamo CorporationQOC 7.7MATVMativ Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.3IPInternational Paper CompanyQOC 6.9SUZSuzano S.A.QOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: SLVM · MATV · IP · SUZ

Frequently Asked Questions About Magnera Corporation

What is Magnera Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Magnera Corporation (MAGN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $11.95. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MAGN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.56, 8 of 9 active models suggest MAGN may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Magnera Corporation's business model in Paper Mills.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for MAGN?

Magnera Corporation's QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MAGN?

CirclFi analyzes MAGN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MAGN a value trap in 2026?

Magnera Corporation's Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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