International Paper Company (IP) Fair Value 2026

IP · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, International Paper Company (IP) trades at $39.31, versus a $28.72 median fair value across its 7 active models — 26.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
IP
Price
$39.31
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is International Paper Company (IP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, International Paper Company (IP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $28.72, 26.9% below the current price of $39.31. Estimates range from $1.07 to $72.28. IP scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. IP’s -26.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -14.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy International Paper Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IP?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $28.72 -26.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.07 -97.3%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $20.49 -47.9%
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What Is IP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $1.07 to $72.28

CirclFi's 7 active models place International Paper Company (IP) between $1.07 and $72.28 per share, a spread of 248% of the median. The median of that range — $28.72 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for IP, against a current price of $39.31.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.07median $28.72$72.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.07
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$72.28
Model agreement3 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for IP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on IP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is International Paper Company (IP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on International Paper Company at its current price of $39.31. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $28.72 (-26.9% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $72.28 (+83.9%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.07 (-97.3%). This +181.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about International Paper Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About IP?

7 of 13 models are currently active for IP. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IP is $28.72 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IP Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, IP ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

International Paper Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is IP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IP a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for International Paper Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, International Paper Company's fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +181.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IP's 7 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy International Paper Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

PACKRanpak Holdings Corp.QOC 6.7GFLTGenFlat Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.7OIO-I Glass, Inc.QOC 6.8YHGJYunhong Green CTI Ltd.QOC 4.9SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4ORBSEightco Holdings Inc.QOC 4.8DSSDSS, Inc.QOC 4.2GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2AMCRAmcor plcQOC 7.8KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: PACK · GFLT · OI · YHGJ · SLGN · ORBS · DSS · GPK · AMCR · KRT · PKG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IP?

7 companies across all industries closest to IP’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp.QOC 6.5FLRFluor CorporationQOC 6.5HYHyster-Yale, Inc.QOC 6.5ARDXArdelyx, Inc.QOC 6.5ALARAlarum Technologies Ltd.QOC 6.5FBIOFortress Biotech, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CLOV · FLR · HY · ARDX · ALAR · FBIO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About International Paper Company’s Valuation?

What is International Paper Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts International Paper Company (IP)'s intrinsic value at $28.72 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.07 to $72.28. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.31, 3 of 7 active models suggest IP may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $28.72, 26.9% below the current price of $39.31 — a consensus view that IP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits International Paper Company's business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for IP?

International Paper Company's QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IP?

CirclFi analyzes IP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on IP?

Of the 7 models currently active on IP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $72.28 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.07. CirclFi's published fair value for IP is the median of that range, $28.72, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 248% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is IP a value trap in 2026?

International Paper Company's Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, International Paper Company (IP) has a median fair value of $28.72 — 26.9% below the current price of $39.31 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IP valuation
  • Financial statements: International Paper Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000051434) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for IP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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