FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) Fair Value 2026

FDXF · Integrated Freight & Logistics ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) trades at $133.25, versus a $52.12 median fair value across its 7 active models — 60.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FDXF
Price
$133.25
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $52.12, 60.9% below the current price of $133.25. Estimates range from $14.72 to $144.51. FDXF scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FDXF’s -60.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Integrated Freight & Logistics sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FDXF?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($133.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.00 -73.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $52.12 -60.9%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $87.16 -34.6%
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What Is FDXF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $14.72 to $144.51

CirclFi's 7 active models place FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) between $14.72 and $144.51 per share, a spread of 249% of the median. The median of that range — $52.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FDXF, against a current price of $133.25.

Low · PWERMHigh · Regime Cross
$14.72median $52.12$144.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelPWERM$14.72
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$144.51
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FDXF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FDXF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $52.12. Trading at its current price of $133.25, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -60.9%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $144.51 (+8.5%), versus PWERM at $14.72 (-89.0%). This +97.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FDXF?

7 of 13 models are currently active for FDXF. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FDXF is $52.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FDXF Rank in Integrated Freight & Logistics?

Among 37 Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, FDXF ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.'s positioning within the Integrated Freight & Logistics segment means that EBIT per unit plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including emerging market demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FDXF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FDXF a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FDXF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FDXF's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks with 13-model coverage

LSTRLandstar System, Inc.QOC 7.5CYRXCryoport, Inc.QOC 6.9PBIPitney Bowes Inc.QOC 7.5FWRDForward Air CorporationQOC 6.6GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.QOC 7.7HGYNHong Yuan Holding GroupQOC 6.6MVNCMarvion Inc.QOC 5.7PALProficient Auto Logistics, Inc.QOC 4.3UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.QOC 8.5ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.8FDXFedEx CorporationQOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: LSTR · CYRX · PBI · FWRD · GXO · HGYN · MVNC · PAL · UPS · ZTO · FDX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FDXF?

7 companies across all industries closest to FDXF’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

SFNCSimmons First National CorporationQOC 7.2UNMUnum GroupQOC 7.2NRUCNational Rural Utilities CooperQOC 7.2FTSFortis Inc.QOC 7.2SPHRSphere Entertainment Co.QOC 7.2FSIFlexible Solutions International, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SFNC · UNM · NRUC · FTS · SPHR · FSI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)'s intrinsic value at $52.12 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.72 to $144.51. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FDXF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $133.25, 1 of 7 active models suggest FDXF may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $52.12, 60.9% below the current price of $133.25 — a consensus view that FDXF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.'s business model in Integrated Freight & Logistics.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for FDXF?

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FDXF?

CirclFi analyzes FDXF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FDXF?

Of the 7 models currently active on FDXF, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $144.51 per share, and PWERM is the most bearish at $14.72. CirclFi's published fair value for FDXF is the median of that range, $52.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 249% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FDXF a value trap in 2026?

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) has a median fair value of $52.12 — 60.9% below the current price of $133.25 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FDXF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FDXF valuation

Market data for FDXF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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