RXO, Inc. (RXO) Fair Value 2026

RXO · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, RXO, Inc. (RXO) trades at $21.91, versus a $29.97 median fair value across its 2 active models — 36.8% above the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RXO
Price
$21.91
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +51.0% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is RXO, Inc. (RXO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, RXO, Inc. (RXO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $29.97, 36.8% above the current price of $21.91. Estimates range from $26.86 to $33.09. RXO scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. RXO’s +36.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy RXO, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RXO?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $26.86 +22.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $33.09 +51.0%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is RXO, Inc. (RXO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for RXO, Inc.. Trading at $21.91 against an estimated intrinsic value of $29.97, 2 of 2 active models flag meaningful upside of +36.8% at the median.

What Do the Models Say About RXO?

2 of 13 models are currently active for RXO. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for RXO is $29.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RXO Rank in Trucking?

Among 17 Trucking stocks, RXO ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

As a automotive sector, RXO, Inc. operates in a sector where units delivered is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating RXO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is RXO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RXO a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for RXO, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, RXO, Inc. is rated at 6.8/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

Models cluster within a tight range (+28.4% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RXO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RXO's 2 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy RXO, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.QOC 6.8KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3HTLDHeartland Express, Inc.QOC 6.6MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.3ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: WERN · CVLG · KNX · HTLD · MRTN · ULH · TOPP · ODFL · ARCB · XPO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RXO?

7 companies across all industries closest to RXO’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

HZOMarineMax, Inc.QOC 6.8GOAIEva Live, Inc.QOC 6.8ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.QOC 6.8PROFProfound Medical Corp.QOC 6.8VNDAVanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 6.8BAFNBayFirst Financial Corp.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HZO · GOAI · EL · PROF · VNDA · BAFN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About RXO, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is RXO, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts RXO, Inc. (RXO)'s intrinsic value at $29.97 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $26.86 to $33.09. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RXO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.91, 2 of 2 active models suggest RXO may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $29.97, 36.8% above the current price of $21.91 — a consensus view that RXO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits RXO, Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for RXO?

RXO, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RXO?

CirclFi analyzes RXO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RXO a value trap in 2026?

RXO, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, RXO, Inc. (RXO) has a median fair value of $29.97 — 36.8% above the current price of $21.91 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RXO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RXO valuation
  • Financial statements: RXO, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001929561) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RXO as of ; valuations recomputed .