TFI International Inc. (TFII) Fair Value 2026

TFII · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, TFI International Inc. (TFII) trades at $113.94, versus a $100.06 median fair value across its 11 active models — 12.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $109.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
TFII
Price
$113.94
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +83.5% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is TFI International Inc. (TFII) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, TFI International Inc. (TFII) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $100.06, 12.2% below the current price of $113.94. Estimates range from $25.86 to $440.36. TFII scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. TFII’s -12.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Trucking sector median is -31.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TFI International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TFII?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($113.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $109.42 -4.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $60.36 -47.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $100.06 -12.2%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $209.03 +83.5%
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What Is TFII's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $25.86 to $440.36

CirclFi's 11 active models place TFI International Inc. (TFII) between $25.86 and $440.36 per share, a spread of 414% of the median. The median of that range — $100.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TFII, against a current price of $113.94.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$25.86median $100.06$440.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$25.86
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$440.36
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TFII. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TFII, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TFI International Inc. (TFII) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TFI International Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $100.06, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $113.94. While the median implied return is -12.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +363.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $440.36 (+286.5%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $25.86 (-77.3%). This +363.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TFI International Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TFII?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TFII. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TFII is $100.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $109.42 on its own, implying -4.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TFII Rank in Trucking?

Among 16 Trucking stocks, TFII ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Trucking sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For TFI International Inc., metrics like inventory days supply provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TFII a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TFII a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for TFI International Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TFI International Inc. scores 7.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +363.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TFII valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TFII's 11 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TFI International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.3SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3SAIASaia, Inc.QOC 8.0WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: ARCB · MRTN · SNDR · KNX · SAIA · WERN · RXO · TOPP · XPO · ODFL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TFII?

7 companies across all industries closest to TFII’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

LBLandBridge Company LLCQOC 7.6WDHWaterdrop Inc.QOC 7.6NBRNabors Industries Ltd.QOC 7.6DAVAEndava plcQOC 7.6CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LB · WDH · NBR · DAVA · CWEN · LPLA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About TFI International Inc.’s Valuation?

What is TFI International Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TFI International Inc. (TFII)'s intrinsic value at $100.06 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $25.86 to $440.36. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $109.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TFII overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $113.94, 4 of 11 active models suggest TFII may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $100.06, 12.2% below the current price of $113.94 — a consensus view that TFII is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TFI International Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for TFII?

TFI International Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TFII?

CirclFi analyzes TFII with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TFII?

Of the 11 models currently active on TFII, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $440.36 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $25.86. CirclFi's published fair value for TFII is the median of that range, $100.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 414% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TFII a value trap in 2026?

TFI International Inc.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, TFI International Inc. (TFII) has a median fair value of $100.06 — 12.2% below the current price of $113.94 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TFII/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TFII valuation
  • Financial statements: TFI International Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001588823) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TFII as of ; valuations recomputed .

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